Daily Archives: July 31, 2012

Is Global Trade About To Collapse? Where are Oil Prices Headed?

We received permission to reprint an interview by James Stafford of the news site Oilprice.com with Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock. We follow Mish’s writings daily since he provides unique and insightful coverage of topics that we consider important but that no one else we know of covers consistently. James highlights the key topics of the interview:

  • Why global trade will collapse if Romney wins
  • Why investors should get out of stocks and commodities
  • Why we have been oversold on shale gas and renewable energy
  • Why oil prices will likely fall in the short-term
  • Why the Eurozone is doomed
  • Why there may soon be an oil war with China
  • How government interference is ruining the renewable energy sector
  • Why we need to get rid of fractional reserve lending

A transcript of the interview follows.

Stratfor Geopolitical Weekly: 20120731

The Election, the Presidency and Foreign Policy

July 31, 2012 | 0900 GMT


By George Friedman

The American presidency is designed to disappoint. Each candidate must promise things that are beyond his power to deliver. No candidate could expect to be elected by emphasizing how little power the office actually has and how voters should therefore expect little from him. So candidates promise great, transformative programs. What the winner actually can deliver depends upon what other institutions, nations and reality will allow him. Though the gap between promises and realities destroys immodest candidates, from the founding fathers’ point of view, it protects the republic. They distrusted government in general and the office of the president in particular.

Congress, the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve Board all circumscribe the president’s power over domestic life. This and the authority of the states greatly limit the president’s power, just as the country’s founders intended. To achieve anything substantial, the president must create a coalition of political interests to shape decision-making in other branches of the government. Yet at the same time — and this is the main paradox of American political culture — the presidency is seen as a decisive institution and the person holding that office is seen as being of overriding importance.

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