Monthly Archives: April 2016

The Japanese Economy: Harikari in Slow Motion

Motivated by three recent articles by Zero Hedge and Mike Shedlock: In Shocking Finding, The Bank Of Japan Is Now A Top 10 Holder In 90% Of Japanese Stocks, Bank of Japan Owns Over Half of Japanese ETFs; Why Stop There?, and Bank of Japan Corners 33% of Bond Market: All Japanese Bonds, 40 Years and Below, Yield 0.3% or Less, we decided to take a closer look at the Bank of Japan (BoJ), particularly its balance sheet.

There is widespread agreement that this will end badly. No one, however, has any idea whether it blows up this month, this year or whenever. In this article, we explain the the nature of the problem and possible signs of the tipping point being reached. When it does blow, the shock waves will cascade through all economies.

What We’re Watching

In no particular order and with no ranking of importance as we see it:

  1. Global seismic and geothermal activity. Are the events linked and if so will activity increase?
  2. Japanese monetary policy. Will Abenomics finally implode and take the Japanese bond market with it?
  3. The US presidential race. What happens with and around Trump may be pivotal.
  4. Economic themes. NIRP, the cashless society, the inflation debate and bail-ins.

The Ontario Jobs Picture in March: Treading Water – Sharks Nibbling

This month we change our reporting format to more of a streamlined summary. For data we use the Ontario labour market component  from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted.

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