You Need a Strong Russia

With the collapse of the USSR, the US emerged as the single global superpower. The main threats to its power and influence are the regional hegemonies of Russia, Iran and China. Understanding how the US is dealing with each will help us to understand why we need a strong Russia.

The Case of Iran

The Shiite state of Iran is at present contained, in part by their mortal enemies, the Sunni states led by Saudi Arabia. As well as being a counter to Iranian ambition, the latter has proven to be a useful tool as a primary market for the US military-industrial complex, recycling petrodollars back to the US.

In the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the US supported Iraq with intelligence and turned a blind eye to their use of chemical weapons. The US needed to keep Iraq from being overrun, thereby expanding Iran’s power and  influence to the point it could begin picking off the other Gulf states with Sunni governments. In past millenia, states fought with other states over yellow gold. In the modern era we fight and maneuver over black gold (oil).

If Iraq had fallen, Iran would have acquired its vast energy resources. The tiny remaining Gulf oil states would then have been annexed along with their oil resources. Indeed we saw how easily Saddam Husein moved into Kuwait. The final battle for domination of Mideast oil and the defeat of the Sunni Moslems would have been the conquest of Saudi Arabia. The US could not allow this consolidation of power and the control of Mideast oil in Iranian hands. Consequently the US ensured that Iraq would win the war with Iran.

When Saddam Husein began to get out of hand, the US then had to eliminate him through the subsequent Gulf wars. Ironically they were too successful and with the likelihood of Shiite control of Iraq emerging, they had to rearm and reengage the Sunni factions to oppose the Iranian influence present through the Shiite factions.

Today, the situation in Iraq is bloodier than it ever was before the US “liberated” it. As of Friday March 14, 2014 the website Iraq Body Count lists 441 civilians killed in the first two weeks of March. One must congratulate the US for turning a stable sectarian dictatorship into a metastable sectarian civil war.

The US has never had an interest in peace and democracy in the Middle East. What they are trying to do is maintain balance in the centuries-old Sunni/Shiite conflict. The goal is to ensure that they keep fighting each other without the possibility that either side can win. Simple hegemon containment 101.

The Case of Russia

Although Russia is a failed superpower, it still has a large nuclear arsenal and presumably a large and efficient military. It needs to be taken down a peg or too. If Russia can be destroyed as an effective military power, or at least contained by others such as the European states, then the US can turn to China. Then with China eliminated as a military and economic power, the US can reach its goal, global hegemony – the American Empire.

The easiest way to deal with Russia is by provoking conflict with their traditional enemies the Europeans. And no single country has to go it alone. This is what NATO is now for. NATO is the mechanism that the US directs the force of others through. The US dragged NATO into Afghanistan, a conflict that no country had any business getting into.

It was a ridiculous proposition from the start. Attacking a land-locked county immediately minimized the usefulness of naval assets. Then there was the logistics of getting there and maintaining supply lines – probably the longest of any army in history. As a case in point, Canada, lacking any logistical air transport, had to rent commercial flights and use heavy Russian lifters to get their armour over into the conflict. Against Taliban foot-soldiers, this was hardly a great chapter in tank warfare. But it was a NATO effort – after some US arm twisting.

The next exercise was to get NATO to take out Gaddafi in Libya. At the same time the US and its NATO allies were pushing NATO forces into most of the former Soviet and Warsaw Pact republics some of which are on Russia’s border. This has allowed the US to instal missile batteries right on Russia’s doorstep. (Are you old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis?)

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What Russia wants is either a neutral Ukraine or a Ukraine that has some allegiance to Russia. The latter situation was progressing until the current Western-backed coup. Western success in the Ukraine would have Russia effectively bottled up.

There is another reason why the Ukraine and particularly Crimea which was part of Russia until 1954, have strategic importance. While Russia has unfettered access to the Arctic Ocean and the North Pacific, it’s industrial heartland is best served through access to the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean through the Black Sea. It’s most important naval base is the historical Sevastopol base in Crimea. Although it has a small coastline of its own on the Black Sea, to lose Crimea would effectively shut it off from the world. It’s south and east are bordered by the various republics of Chaostan (term from Richard Maybury), China and Mongolia (see this Google map above).

So this is the crucial battle and Putin will fight. It is a matter of survival for a proud and independent country. Obama may fight. Better still, he may get NATO to fight for him with whatever US support is necessary to win. The optimal situation would be a major war in Europe that destroyed the economies of Germany and France making them vassals of the US as was the case after the World wars of the Twentieth Century. Russia down; Europe down; bring on the Chinese.

Is It Necessary to Destroy Russia?

As we shall see, time would reduce Russia’s threat to American preeminence. Russia has two social factors working against it. The first is chronic and widespread alcoholism (read: Vodka Blamed for Dismal Russian Life Expectancy Figures). As the article notes, this leads to a decreased life expectancy. From 1960 to 2011, life expectancy of Russians compared to other nations has fallen from 60th place to 141. The second effect of alcoholism is lost economic productivity and increased healthcare and social support costs.

The second area of decline is common to most of the developed nations, a declining birth rate. In 2011, the births per 1,000 population were 10.94 placing it in 172nd position among 222 states. This compares to the US at 13.68 or 147th position (from Index Mundi).

The website Knoema, for 2013, lists the size of the American economy as measured by GDP, at $16.724 trillion while China is in second place with $8.939 trillion and Russia is in 8th place with $2.118 trillion. At 1/8 the size of the US economy which is the same as 2012, Russia’s recent rapid recovery from the economic chaos that followed the breakup of the USSR may have plateaued.

Another observation is that Russia is still an economy rooted in twentieth century industrialization and resource development while the US has progressed to a technologically advanced economy. The changing energy picture due to shale oil and gas will negatively impact Russia’s balance of trade in the short to medium term.

The US could wait out a Russian decline, however, it needs to act quickly for two reasons. The first is that Russia has created a massive legacy of ill will throughout the world, first by atrocities under Stalin in what are now Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltic States, and then through the more recent tensions of the Cold War. Everyone in the West fears or hates Russia. This is huge political capital for the US, that decays as the people directly impacted die off. In Canada we see without exception, a media and a government that is aggressively attacking Putin and Russia, so far at least only in words and symbolic actions.

The second reason is that while Russia is not increasing in power significantly, China is. The South China sea is a highly charged area that could become the scene of a Pacific war that without US help, China would win. The US needs Russia effectively neutralized so it can be ready to take on China.

The Case of China

Well conveniently, things are heating up in the South China Sea. Japan is rearming and has a defense treaty with the US as does Taiwan. There has been a lot of samurai sword rattling on both sides. It only needs a trigger to get started. The US can provide a false flag (also read Warfare State Duplicity: A Brief History Of False Flag Terrorism) incident if necessary. Practice makes perfect.

The Japanese must be hopped up on testosterone because they offer the opportunity for China to annihilate them without major help from the US. The West kept China bottled up in the 19th century and will be happy to do it again. We wonder if it will be a NATO mission.

You may have noticed that NATO has become a dominant military force in the late twentieth century. This is no accident. With the fall of the USSR, its rationale for existence disappeared. However, the US has extensive influence with, if not control over NATO. It can never achieve this with the UN so it treats the UN as a sideshow. The military missions of the UN are Boy Scout missions. The missions of NATO are regional power exercises. Afghanistan proved that this power could be projected beyond Europe.

It will be interesting to see if NATO enters the war against China. And here’s the opportunity for both China and Japan to take each other out. The only remaining obstacle to the American Empire at that point will be … why there’s no one left. Wonder how that happened?

What’s Your Situation?

If you live in a dictatorship that is antithetical to US interests and you want to eliminate the government, the US will help you, at least covertly. On the other hand, if you live in a dictatorship that is supportive of US interests and you want to overthrow the government, the US will help the government eliminate you. This is simply a conclusion drawn from observation of the geopolitical activities throughout the last hundred plus years by the US in places such as Central and South America and the Mideast.

By now you should understand the playbook of the American Empire. It is well advanced. The current phase is the neutralization of Russia. You are a little further in the future. This is why you need a strong Russia today.


A term has recently come to our attention called the Deep State. We have wondered for some time how American foreign policy can remain continuous and consistent when a new president is chosen in the US every four or eight years. Admittedly Congressmen and Senators on average have a longer tenure. But how, we wonder is the continuity preserved? Who carries it? This leads to the question of who formulates it? These questions invite the hypothesis of an inner circle either inside or outside the government and likely both – hence the Deep State. This is a topic for another time but it suggests the direction to look for the roots of the American Empire.

And as a final thought we propose the idea that empire is an emergent phenomenon of a complex system rather than a carefully planned and executed strategy of an evil genius or secret cabal. The truth may lie somewhere in between.

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