Jeffrey Saut – 2015

The month below:

December

November

  • 20151130 “Richard Russell”
  • 20151123 “Thanksgiving Dinner”
  • 20151123 Raymond James Gleanings 11/23/2015
  • 20151116 “Friends”
    • Remain cautionary.
    • Possible buys include:
      • Alphabet (GOOG/$717.00/Outperform);
      • Boston Scientific (BSX/$17.51/Strong Buy);
      • DR Horton (DHI/$30.67/Outperform);
      • Estee Lauder (EL/$82.66/Outperform);
      • NVIDIA (NVDA/$29.80/Strong Buy);and
      • Texas Instruments (TXN/$56.13/Strong Buy).
  • 20151109 “Financial Festival”
    • Canadian bank stocks should be bought.
    • Speaking to my models, regrettably they
      are still counseling for caution on a short-term trading basis despite the fact that I think the secular bull market is alive and well!
    • there are just too many divergences conflicting my models to suggest a clear bullish view in the short-term.
  • 20151102 “The Big W?!”
    • our model has been suggesting a “trading top” is due. We think you got that last week.
    • my model that is telegraphing a trading top for this week. Unfortunately, the weight of the evidence is confirming my model
    • Look for a rally attempt on the first trading day of the new month, but then stocks become vulnerable. For the SPX 2080 – 2090 should keep a lid on the upside and if the SPX breaks below 2040 – 2050 the pullback should be underway.

October

September

  • 20150928 “Faint or Feint?!”
    • He sees a double bottom.
  • 20150921 “Go Opposite to Hysteria
    • You have to learn to go counter to the markets.
  • 20150914 “It’s Someone Else’s Money
    • if those closing lows of August 25th for the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/16433.09) and the D-J Transportation Average (TRAN/8051.62) were 15666.44 and 7466.97, respectively are violated we may be in a bear market.
  • 20150914 Raymond James Gleanings 09/2015
  • 20150908 “Solon’s Warning”
    • “Don’t let ANYTHING go more than 15% – 20% against you
    • if the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/16102.38) closes below its August 24, 2015 closing low of 15871.08, combined with a close by the D-J Transportation Average (TRAN/7793.83) below its closing low of August 25, 2015 of 7466.97, I will have to take a more defensive stance.
    • + and – reason for market changes
    • This week we look for a sharp rebound, very similar to what the SPX did on August 26th (+72.90) and
      August 27th (+47.15), but then for the indices to stall out in the 2030 – 2050 zone followed by renewed weakness.
  • 20150901 “DeVoe’s Unprovable but Highly Probable Theories”
    • Last Monday did qualify as a 90% Downside Day, as well as the most oversold the S&P 500 (SPX/1988.87) has been since the 1987 crash. At such inflection points what you typically see is a two- to seven-session recoil rebound. Expect some kind of downside retest beginning sometime this week.
    • our late week “call” to not expect much more upside above the 1970 – 2000 level
    • Buy: Ctrip.com (CTRP/$69.50/Strong Buy); Jarden (JAH/$52.34/Strong Buy); and Yadkin Financial (YDKN/$20.39/Strong Buy).

August

July

  • 20150727 “Greed and Genius?!”
    • Moreover, there were 33 “buying climaxes” on the SPX last week,
      the most since last March’s short-term “Trading Top;” as well, the SPX also experienced the candle-stick chart pattern of a
      “bearish” engulfing pattern last week (see chart 2). Accordingly, we have been in “correction mode” for the past few weeks:
  • 20150722 Raymond James Gleanings 07/22/2015
  • 20150720 “Release the Condor!
    • The rising wedge explained. He thinks it will break to the upside.
    • There is a full charge of internal energy in the equity markets and if they can finally achieve a decisive upside breakout above 2120, there should be a rally that will surprise everyone.
    • Recommended:
      • GATX (GMT/$55.42/Outperform), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ/$100.13/Outperform), Kansas City Southern (KSU/$103.70/Strong Buy), and Praxair (PX/$122.75/Strong Buy). Another
      • BioMed Realty (BMR/$20.65/Outperform) and GoPro (GPRO/$49.98/Outperform).
      • UnitedHealth (UNH/$113.20/Strong Buy) and Walmart (WMT/$78.60/ Outperform).

May

  • 20150501 “For Trading, Not Eating!”
    • the S&P is in a bearish rising wedge that usually breaks to the downside but he thinks it may break to the upside.

April

  • 20150427 “Being There”
    • Recommendations: Aaron’s (AAN/$32.80/Outperform), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR/$49.96/Outperform), and Manhattan Associates (MANH/$54.90/Strong Buy).
    • I think it is an upside breakout, but it would be classic to see a pullback into the 2090 to 2100 zone before a move higher.
    • I think we are at the Guarded Optimism stage with Enthusiasm, Exuberance, and Unreality yet to come before the secular bull market is over.
  • 20150420 “Activity Versus Inactivity”
    • Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Energy have outperformed the SPX, which “foots” with our preferred portfolio strategy (Chart 5). Given such performance finds the Energy sector overbought, and the Technology and Telecommunications sectors oversold, on a near-term basis.
  • 20150413 “Managing Risk”
    • because we are all going to be wrong more often than we expect.     The
  • 20150406 “Brobdingnagian Top?”
    • Whether any of this will be impactful in what is the best upside statistical month of the year (April) remains to be seen, but it has pushed me back into cautionary mode.
    • Outperform recommendations by Raymond James’ fundamental analysts:
      • Facebook (FB/$81.56)
      • Apple (AAPL/$125.32)
      • Google (GOOG/$535.53)
      • EBAY/$56.91
      • Pulte (PHM/$22.70)
      • Bank of America (BAC/$15.54)

March

  • 20150330 “Secular Bull Market”
    • Saut believes that the economy is growing and that we are in stage 2 of the 6 stages of a bull market. He believes we have 8-9 years left.
  • 20150323 “Active vs. Passive Redux”
    • Suggests we should be moving to actively managed funds.
    • Crude is bottoming.
  • 20150316 “Manic Depression”
  • 20150316 Gleanings “Just One Thing”
  • 20150309 “Stranded in NYC”
    • things are getting better.
    • economy is strengthening.
    • oil has bottomed.
    • Speaking to sectors, of the 10 S&P macro sectors only the Utility space is oversold. All the rest have either a neutral or overbought configuration.
    • Looking at the 100 or so industries shows that many of them are out-performing the broad stock market. Those include technology, retail, restaurants, rails, industrials, healthcare, consumer staples, credit cards, biotech, autos, airlines, and asset managers.
    • a pretty decent move is coming.
    • current decline is not it but may be part of it.
  • 20150302 “The Conference”
    • Barclays is forecasting acceleration of [economic] recovery as the year progresses. We agree.
    • my short-term indicators are overbought (read: extended), and my medium-term indicators are starting to raise red flags. Still, the 2080 to 2100 level for the SPX continues to provide support, while the upside resistance point is at 2120.

February

  • 20150223 “Gathering Thin Reeds?”
    • Consider active management funds.
    • In last Wednesday’s Morning Tack, a description of a number of index funds is given.
    • Those two were the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI/$58.16/see chart 1 on page 3) and the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV/$72.18/see chart 2), both of which screen well on my algorithms.
  • 20150218 “Can Trees Really Grow to the Sky?”
  • 20150209 “From Russia with Love?”
    • “I think the price of crude oil bottomed last week.”
    • Recommendation:
      • Enterprise Products Partners (EPD/$35.29/Strong Buy),
      • EOG Resources (EOG/$95.79/ Outperform) and
      • Plains All American Pipeline (PAA/$51.69/Outperform).
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