The Middle East: A Simmer Or a Rolling Boil?

This morning we decided that it is time to put together a current view of the Middle East centered on ISIS. To this end, we link several very comprehensive articles but with little commentary of our own other than a bit of glue between the pieces.

For a historical background of the present day complexities of geopolitics in the Middle East we present a concise overview by George Friedman: A Net Assessment of the Middle East.

Another article today provides additional insight into the complexity of the Middle East: Ex-US Intelligence Officials Confirm: Secret Pentagon Report Proves US Complicity In Creation Of ISIS.

The question Friedman poses as to the source of ISIS’ effective military capability may be answered in part by an earlier article from Zero Hedge: ISIS’ Strategy Leak Reveals Syrian Takeover Plot, US “Created A Group Of Very Intelligent Enemies”. The US destruction of the Baathist government in Iraq resulted in a number of top officials forming the upper echelons of ISIS.

The final article that recently appeared is Saudi Ambassador Warns West On Iran Deal: “All Options On Table…” Including Nukes. (Also read: The Saudis are ready to go nuclear; Report: Saudi Arabia Seeking “Off-the-Shelf” Nuclear Weapons from Pakistan; Saudi Arabia seals nuclear weapons ‘deal’ with Pakistan.)

This refers to a theme that has been in the news a while, that Saudi Arabia can obtain nuclear weapons from Pakistan on demand. They may already have some since they are not going to admit to such. But certainly if Iran reaches the state of having deliverable nuclear devices, the Saudis will call in their markers from Pakistan.

The US may not have any great concern over a nuclear Middle East since the US homeland is an ocean away from such devices. It may in fact be allowing Iran to go nuclear to balance the Saudi nuclear capability. The Sunni / Shia divide must be maintained in a dynamic equilibrium.

 

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