Sam Collins – October, 2015

The month below:

 

  • 20151031 Dow Breaks Through Bearish Resistance Line
    • I have been cautious throughout the advance, not willing to be an aggressive buyer, and I remain so.
    • Trade: CHK (short) CHK Headed for a 25% Drop. Chesapeake Energy Corporation looks ready to break down from a descending triangle
      •  a good candidate for a short sale at $4 with a target of $3
      • Close 4.01
  • 20151030 Prepare for a Pullback. The large-cap indices are very overbought and due for a round of profit-taking
    • I project a pullback that should test support at about 2,000 on the S&P 500. Take trading profits now and committing cash roughly between the 50-day moving average at 1,980 and the 2,000 level.
    • Trade: R (short) Ryder System Stock Headed Downhill. Thursday’s rally provides an opportunity to sell shares short
      • sell R stock short above $71 with a target price of $62 by year end.
      • Close 71.63
  • 20151029 Small and Mid Caps Finally Take the Lead. Both jumped through significant resistance on higher-than-average volume
    • My guess is that the high volume supporting Wednesday’s advance won’t continue.
    • Trade: SU (long) Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) broke from a double-bottom and is attacking its 200-day moving average
      • Buy SU stock under $29 with a price target of $33
      • Close 28.47
  • 20151028 With former leaders now a drag on the market, we could be in for range-bound trading
    • Trade: IBB (long) IBB Still a Stellar Long-Term Buy. iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) is headed for $400-plus
      • New buyers should try to purchase shares under $310. Because of the outstanding long-term potential of the fund’s holdings, traders may opt not to trade out of IBB at the 200-day moving average ($348) and even add to positions on pullbacks. The longer-term price target is $400-plus.
      • Close 327.65
  • 20151027 High Block Trading Points to Window Dressing. This phenomenon could be what has been moving the market higher
    • Trade: XHB (short) XHB on the Verge of a Death Cross. SPDR S&P Homebuilders (ETF) is just a fraction away from issuing this long-term bearish signal
      • Close 36.26
  • 20151026 The sluggish Dow transports and financials could keep this rally from advancing
    • T
    • Trade: NCR (short) E
      • Sell NCR short at $26 with a trading target of $20
      • Close 25.48
  • 20151023 Could This Be a Buying Climax? Thursday’s rally was accompanied by poor earnings and a spike in volume
    • This week’s performance gives credence to my conclusion in Tuesday’s Daily Market Outlook: “The ‘W’ bottom is a convincing technical feature that cannot be ignored. Therefore, I am confident we have had a ‘correction’ unless some unforeseen negative event occurs.
    • Trade: LLY (short) Eli Lilly and Co broke the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation on high volume
      • sell shares short at $76 or higher with a trading target of $65
      • Close 75.16
  • 20151022 Avoid aggressive buying until the market resolves a test of the late-September lows
    • Trade: PFE (short) High-volume selling, a bearish horn and a death cross all point to lower prices
      • Sell PFE stock if you own it or sell shares short at $33 with a price target of $27
      • Close 33.46
  • 20151021 The index could turn down from major resistance and fall to its 50% Fibonacci level
    • I recommend a cautious approach with the objective of accumulating cash while awaiting a better buying opportunity.
    • Trade: TXN (short) Texas Instruments Incorporated is trading just below major resistance heading into its Q3 report
      • Short sellers should wait until after the earnings announcement before taking a position and place a stop-loss order at $54.50.
      • Close 52.43
  • 20151020 Market Puts in a Convincing Bottom. But we may see a wide trading range develop from here
    • The “W” bottom is a convincing technical feature that cannot be ignored. Therefore, I am confident we have had a “correction” unless some unforeseen negative event occurs.
    • A range of 1,950 to 2,080 on the S&P 500 could last into the first quarter
    • Trade: TWTR (long) A strong earnings report should send Twitter Inc soaring through resistance
      • Buy TWTR stock at the market with a short-term trading objective of $40
      • Close 30.91
  • 20151019 Rally Appears Doomed to Fail Unless… Both Dow indices need to punch through their immediate resistance zones
    • I think any rally from the current level will likely fail and stocks will fall further than normal due to being propped up by a policy based on hope and not substance.
    • Trade: HON (short) HON Stock Breaking Down From 4-Year Bull Market. The chart of Honeywell International Inc. now shows a bearish horn pattern
      • Sell MAT stock short at $22 or higher with a downside target of $16
      • Close 2
  • 20151016 Stocks Erase Losses on Hopes Fed Will Delay. Buyers rushed in on the belief the central bank will hold off on a rate hike
    • Trade: MAT (short) An earnings miss and technical failure could send MAT stock into the mid-teens
      • Sell MAT stock short at $22 or higher with a downside target of $16
      • Close 22.63
  • 20151015 Weakness in former leaders and strength in defensive investments is not a good sign
    • In a stock market that is volatile and weak, it is best to either stand aside or sell.
    • Trade: BRCD (short) Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. could provide quick profits on the downside
      • sell BRCD stock short at $10.75 with a target of $9.50.
      • Close 10.40
  • 20151014 Market Could Face a Dow Non-Confirmation. The transports need to hold above their 50-day moving average
    • a non-confirmation in Dow language is a “divergence,” and that would negate the advance off of the Sept. 29 low. Thus, selling remains the best strategy.
    • Trade: JBHT (short) A break at a double-bottom could result in further selling in J B Hunt Transport Services Inc
      • Sell JBHT stock short above $75 with a trading target of $65
      • Close 72.72
  • 20151013 Bulls Banking on a Double-Bottom. But it is too early to count on a trend change since there is significant resistance
    • a failure at the current level of resistance would be a disaster for the bulls.
    • Trade: WYNN (short) Wynn Resorts, Limited reversed from a recovery to its 50-day moving average
      • Sell WYNN stock short at $71 or higher with a trading target of $55
      • Close 71.20
  • 20151012 Market Approaching Critical Resistance. How it responds should tell us whether buyers are strong enough to push stocks to new highs
    • What appears to be propelling the market is a reflex rally in energy and another delayed decision on interest rates by the Fed — both potentially negative developments.
    • Trade: DB (short) Deutsche Bank AG (USA) is breaking down from a massive double-top
      • DB stock appears to be a short-sale candidate at $29 with a minimum price target of $20
      • Close 29.34
  • 20151009 Market Approaching Critical Resistance. How it responds should tell us whether buyers are strong enough to push stocks to new highs
    • Cash is still king.
    • Trade: TWTR (long) Twitter Inc just completed a double-bottom reversal from a bear market
      • Buy TWTR stock at $27 with a price target of $38
      • Close 30.32
  • 20151008 While the media focuses elsewhere, there is one chart I will be looking at
    • The S&P 500 must close above its 50-day moving average at 1,997 and SPY must forge a successful attack on the $202-$203 line if the bulls are to recover.
    • A failure to move through that zone before the big bucks from retirement accounts run out (my guess is today) could turn the rally into a big bull trap.
    • Trade: ENY (long) Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF broke its long-term bearish resistance line to the upside
      • Buy ENY under $8.60 for a trade to $10
      • Close 8.61
  • 20151007 However, it currently looks more like a short-covering panic than a bullish reversal
    • with a struggle at the 50-day moving averages and massive overhead, as well as a bearish intermediate downtrend line (not shown), the rally is looking more like the result of a short-covering panic than a bullish reversal.
    • Trade: ADBE (short) ADBE Stock in for More Pain. Shorting Adobe Systems Incorporated could return nearly 15% in a few weeks
      • $84 may be an excellent price to enter a short sale in ADBE stock with a trading objective of $72.
      • Close 85.15
  • 20151006 Market Rallies, but This is the Line to Watch. A close above it could indicate the correction is over and a challenge to the massive overhead has begun
    • Friday’s reversal only has short-term meaning unless SPY closes above the line at $202.89 to $202.92.
    • Trade: OIH (long) An outside reversal off a double-bottom in Market Vectors Oil Services ETF is a good sign
      • Buy OIH under $29 for a trade to $36
      • Close 29.64
  • 20151005 Dead Cat Bounces Don’t Last Long. Use this as an opportunity to raise cash or short stocks
    • And 30% of the Dow’s high at about 18,350 is roughly 5,500 points for a downside target of 12,850.
    • Trade: MSFT (short) The recent move up in Microsoft Corporation is merely a reaction rally
      • Traders should sell shares short at $46 with a price target of $35. However a stop-loss order should be entered at $49
      • Close 45.57
  • 20151002 What Will it Take to Confirm a Bear Market? While one has not yet officially been declared, I believe it’s only a matter of time
    • And 30% of the Dow’s high at about 18,350 is roughly 5,500 points for a downside target of 12,850.
    • Trade: TSLA (short) The chart shows a failed recovery and major sell signal for Tesla Motors Inc.
      • Sell TSLA stock short at $240 with a price target of $200
      • Close 239.88
  • 20151001 A Reversal is Not in the Cards. We must conclude a major downtrend has been signaled from the SPY chart
    • And 30% of the Dow’s high at about 18,350 is roughly 5,500 points for a downside target of 12,850.
    • Trade: NVS (short) Slowing sales growth and a chart breakdown do not bode well for Novartis AG (ADR)
      • Sell NVS stock short at $95 with a target of $85
      • Close 91.02
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