Bits and Pieces – 20180411, Wednesday

Commentary

In a recent unreleased Bits and Pieces, I started to formulate a reorganization of the format to help focus my thinking in several areas. This post has the preliminary format.

Some years ago I formulated the position that the two great threats to civilization – our society, culture, politics and geopolitics – where socialism and Islamism. I would now add a third – globalization or globalism. Interestingly, Bits and Pieces has never had categories for these movements. While this fact invites more thought on my part as to why, the topics that have emerged are the ones that I see as having more direct impact on daily life. Right now, war is the dominant one, in all its manifestations. To this end, this inaugural post retains all the category and sub-category headings. Future posts will not show empty topics.


Climate change is the second important category. To state this requires some explanation since the term is loaded with meaning based on false premises and doctrines. The earth’s energy budget is a complex dynamic system part of which is the planet’s climate. As such, by definition, it is always changing. It may have periods when its state is metastable, but change is implicit. Therefore the term climate change is essentially a tautology. As such it is a truism requiring neither belief nor disbelief. It certainly carries no implication of anthropomorphic contribution or structural component contribution such as CO2.

I am putting this post out because we may be hours or days away from a Mid-East war with global players which may prove to be the opening conflict in the next global war, WWIII.

Trump is a person who leads off with the nuclear option in any confrontation. This can throw his opponents into disarray, something that may be intentional or simply his intuitive style of doing business.

His declaration of a trade war with steel and aluminum was put forward explicitly with no exceptions. Later the position changed with respect to Canada and Mexico. There could be exemptions IF NAFTA negotiations proceeded favourably (to Trump’s satisfaction). The strategy in short is open nuclear and settle for what you really want or can accept.

Trump has gone nuclear with Syria. Tomahawks will fly within hours or days. The problem here is who is his opponent. Assad is not in a position to negotiate anything. Nor is Iran. This may become a direct confrontation with Russia designed to force a negotiated settlement in Syria, but that is not clear. The Russians have not backed down.

But what if Trump is using the Iraq war playbook. Declare a position that appears to justifiably require a nuclear response figuratively speaking and then launch the Tomahawks. The intent here is to get into war in a way that it can be sold to the public. In Iraq it was the alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) which were never found. In Syria it is the allegations of the use of chemical weapons on civilians by Assad, a claim which is unverified. This of course has been used several times in Syria without establishing who the real perpetrators have been that I can recall.

The whole purpose of a false flag incident is to get you into the war you want with popular support. The US used it in Iraq, Vietnam, Libya, and arguably, Afghanistan.

The situation may deescalate but the neocons in the US who are driving toward war may have calculated that they can start a war in Syria and deal with Russia on the side if Russia becomes involved. Trump has been moving aggressively towards Iran (threatening to back out of the nuclear deal) as has Israel, and they may plan to include Iran in the conflict to neutralize it at the same time.

The geopolitics is exceedingly complex and any significant US attack threatens to escalate into WWIII. As a personal note, I am moving investments to cash today. The geopolitical risk to markets is simply to great for me to sleep well.

War

Economic Warfare

Partly correct, although the economic phase has been in operation for years in the form of sanctions: World War III Will Be An Economic War. Trade wars are now undrwway in the form of initial skirmishes.

Currency Warfare

China has currently ruled it out in the current trade war although that can change when it changes: New PBOC Governor Rules Out Currency Depreciation In US-China Trade War.

Trade Warfare

China has responded in kind to Trump, demonstrating strength while being conciliatory otherwise: ‘No Direct Confrontation’: Investors Voice Relief at Xi’s Speech.

Sanctions and Blockades

The Skripal affair in the UK seems to be breaking down. The whole affair seems to be based on a time-tested strategy: 1) stage a chemical attack, real or mock, on civilians; 2) immediately blame the ______ (fill in the blanks with Putin or Russians or Assad or whoever you need to vilify); 3)before anyone with a still-functioning brain can use it, attack the target you have pre-selected in a manner that you have already planned either verbally , physically or both; 4) create the next crisis before the story falls apart.

It has worked several times in Syria and is currently in play there again. The UK is in stage four with the Skripal affair as stage three has become untenable: Anger Is Building In The UK At The Government’s Handling Of The Skripal Case and As Skripal-Gate Collapses, Will May’s Government Be Next?

The affair is more like a Monty Python skit. First, the British chemical weapon researchers couldn’t identify the alleged agent as being Russian (Experts unable to identify source of nerve agent but UK says it’s Russia). Now they’re backpedaling on even accusing the Russians: UK Foreign Office Denies Claiming Russia Responsible For Nerve Agent, Deletes Tweet. And by the way, there was collateral damage: Skripal’s Pets Were Sacrificed To Cover The Investigation’s Mistakes.

Technological Warfare

Cyber Warfare

Kinetic Warfare

Regional Wars

I believe this program started quite a while ago but we don’t want to lose sight of another potential theater of war: India Builds Over 14,000 Bunkers In Preparation For War With Pakistan.

The American Empire (AE)

Cold War II

World War III

The posturing is high. How close are we to war: Trump Warns Russia “Missiles Are Coming” At Syria After Moscow Vows To Shoot Them Down? Also: “Imminent Announcement” Of US Action In Syria Coming Amid Expectations Of Air Strikes “Within Hours”. Paul Craig Roberts weighs in: On The Threshold of War — Paul Craig Roberts.

The following events in the last 24 hours up to press time may be viewed as positioning of assets in preparation for possible conflict:

Climate

Grand Solar Minimum (GSM)

Personal Development

I have considered the problem of excessive fat as an energy balance problem or a black box problem: energy in = energy out + energy stored. Simple, right? Well although I maintain the physics stands, the internal workings of the black box are biologically far from simple: Controlling the Body’s ‘Fat Thermometer’,. The body has an internal setting for its ideal weight. Two hormones, insulin and leptin, regulate the body’s fat level to achieve this target weight. Insulin increases fat storage and leptin increases fat burn. Refined carbohydrate and simple sugars in particular strongly increase insulin production and overwhelm the body’s regulatory process leading to obesity.

The article has five recommendations to restore the body’s natural regulatory processes and return to a normal weight:

  1. Eat less sugar
  2. Eat less refined grains
  3. Moderate protein and high natural fats
  4. Don’t eat all the time (time restricted eating or intermittent fasting). Stop snacking
  5. Eat real unprocessed foods (lower in insulin effects)

Periodic fasting supports this regimen and research indicates calory restriction can actually improve health, particularly in old age.

National Politics

The Deep State

Socialism

Bits and Pieces

In my blog post Bits and Pieces – 20171117, Friday, I did a rough calculation of the electricity requirement that would be needed if BitCoin became the primary means of financial transactions globally and concluded that global electricity production is insufficient to support such a system. Here’s an article that supports this conclusion: Ten years in, nobody has come up with a use for blockchain. Peer-to-peer (P2P) distributed algorithms and systems have been around for at least a couple of decades. Blockchain is simply a new P2P application which adds cryptography to create cryptocurrencies. The article suggests that the application for which the blockchain creates a “killer app” is yet to be found.

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