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Industrial Expansion Will Strain Mexico’s Water Resources

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Summary

Editor’s Note: This is the eighth installment of an occasional series on water scarcity issues around the world that Stratfor will be building upon periodically.

Much like its northern neighbor, Mexico is not water scarce when viewed as a whole. But unequal water distribution has led to significant water stress in several parts of the country. Supply has been further strained by poor infrastructure, pollution and overuse — partly attributable to inefficient management and a growing population. Still, Mexico is positioned to experience significant economic growth because of its proximity to the United States and the likely expansion of its manufacturing sector as the country’s population increases.

Population Decline and the Great Economic Reversal

By George Friedman

In recent weeks, we have been focusing on Greece, Germany, Ukraine and Russia. All are still burning issues. But in every case, readers have called my attention to what they see as an underlying and even defining dimension of all these issues — if not right now, then soon. That dimension is declining population and the impact it will have on all of these countries. The argument was made that declining populations will generate crises in these and other countries, undermining their economies and national power. Sometimes we need to pause and move away from immediate crises to broader issues. Let me start with some thoughts from my book The Next 100 Years.

The Political Debut of Europe’s “Generation Austerity”

A news bulletin from the Guardian:

Brussels, February 12: The new Greek government’s confrontation with its Eurozone creditors over its campaign to relieve its staggering debt burden while also relaxing the terms of five years of austerity resulted in stalemate late on Wednesday …. It appeared that Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, ordered his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, to stand firm against the pressure to make any concessions.

New Politics for Old in the Cradle of Democracy

On January 25, 2015, the Greek people elected a team of politicians who imagine themselves – probably correctly – as harbingers of a generational change that is swiftly taking place everywhere throughout Europe.

The generation of politicians who have directed Europe’s centrist parties for the last quarter-century came into office convinced that the collapse of Soviet Communism was a happy outcome for all. It would be a long time before anyone looking forward to a political career in a democracy would play with the notion that, after all, there might have been something to be said for the wisdom of Karl Mark, Friedrich Engels, Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin or Leonid Brezhnev. Pictures of these worthies came down from the walls in the offices of History Professors throughout the free world.

Germany Emerges

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accompanied by French President Francois Hollande, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 6. Then she met with U.S. President Barack Obama on Feb. 9. The primary subject was Ukraine, but the first issue discussed at the news conference following the meeting with Obama was Greece. Greece and Ukraine are not linked in the American mind. They are linked in the German mind, because both are indicators of Germany’s new role in the world and of Germany’s discomfort with it.

Flashpoint: The Meaning of Jihad

From NightWatch today we have a lovely, concise explanation of the term Jihad:

Jihad means struggle or striving. It is not a pillar of Islam, but it is a religious duty of all Muslims. It is one of the ten practices of Shia Islam. Historically, in most cases jihad refers to military struggle. Some Islamic scholars call jihad the sixth pillar. A Sunni Pakistani cab driver in the US assured NightWatch that jihad is the duty of all Muslims and it includes killing his passengers if Allah called him.

Of comparable importance to Christians would be the 10 commandments. One cannot as a Christian, pick and choose which commandments he will follow and which he would deny to accept.

References

Jeffrey Saut – 2015

  • Short-term:
    • unknown since Sept. last letter
  • Medium-term:
    • unknown since Sept. last letter
  • Long-term:
    • Primary trend is a DOW theory bull market and the 4th major breakout in a century. (see June 2013 gleanings)

The Widening Gulf Between the Civilized World and Islam


Below, Paul discusses the evolving position of Islam in the world. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

Immediate Impact of the Islamist Slaughters in Paris, January, 2015.

As has been the case with all of the recent Islamo-terrorist attacks upon our lives and our institutions, the monsters who perpetrated those murders of the Charlie Hebdo cartoonists, and their comrade who carried out the assassinations of civilians inside the Hyper Casher store in Paris have achieved the very opposite of their declared purpose. They have raised awareness worldwide of the unappeasable character of Islamic terrorism in all its forms while drastically lowering the prestige of Islam. They have provoked an unanticipated display of solidarity of the political community of France with the Jewish community, possibly – just possibly, averting the mass exodus of the Jewish population of France to Israel or America. They have concentrated the previously wayward attentions of the police and security units that are tasked with preventing their illegal activities everywhere in the world. They have stirred up huge popular demonstrations against further concessions to Muslim demands for accommodation of their morality and their culture.

Sam Collins – February, 2015

  • Short-term:
    • we remain cautiously bullish
  • Midterm:
    • up
  • Long-term:
    • the long-term trend is bullish

The New Drivers of Europe’s Geopolitics

By George Friedman

For the past two weeks, I have focused on the growing fragmentation of Europe. Two weeks ago, the murders in Paris prompted me to write about the fault line between Europe and the Islamic world. Last week, I wrote about the nationalism that is rising in individual European countries after the European Central Bank was forced to allow national banks to participate in quantitative easing so European nations wouldn’t be forced to bear the debt of other nations. I am focusing on fragmentation partly because it is happening before our eyes, partly because Stratfor has been forecasting this for a long time and partly because my new book on the fragmentation of Europe — Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe — is being released today.

This is the week to speak of the political and social fragmentation within European nations and its impact on Europe as a whole. The coalition of the Radical Left party, known as Syriza, has scored a major victory in Greece. Now the party is forming a ruling coalition and overwhelming the traditional mainstream parties. It is drawing along other left-wing and right-wing parties that are united only in their resistance to the EU’s insistence that austerity is the solution to the ongoing economic crisis that began in 2008.

The European Union, Nationalism and the Crisis of Europe

By George Friedman

Last week, I wrote about the crisis of Islamic radicalism and the problem of European nationalism. This week’s events give me the opportunity to address the question of European nationalism again, this time from the standpoint of the European Union and the European Central Bank, using a term that only an economist could invent: “quantitative easing.”

European media has been flooded for the past week with leaks about the European Central Bank’s forthcoming plan to stimulate the faltering European economy by implementing quantitative easing. First carried by Der Spiegel and then picked up by other media, the story has not been denied by anyone at the bank nor any senior European official. We can therefore call this an official leak, because it lets everyone know what is coming before an official announcement is made later in the week.

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