What We’re Watching

In no particular order and with no ranking of importance as we see it: Global seismic and geothermal activity. Are the events linked and if so will activity increase? Japanese monetary policy. Will Abenomics finally implode and take the Japanese bond market with it? The US presidential race. What happens with and around Trump may Continue reading »

NIRP: A Disease of the Twenty-first Century

Central banks (CB) of the world have begun experimenting with a range of monetary policies never tried before. Although they have a certain academic or theoretical underpinning, they are being implemented without any significant experience to assess their effectiveness.

The latest one to emerge from the labs of the CBs is Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP. We will first provide enough background that anyone can make sense of these policies. More importantly, in the case of NIRP, we will show how it will be an economic and social disaster for the person on the street. We will also reveal who stands to gain from the economic destruction that NIRP will create. First, however, we discuss positive interest rates.

IMPLOSION: Does Syria Have A Future?

With Syria center stage in the Mideast, Paul gives speculates on Syria’s future. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

The fifth anniversary of the Syrian civil war will be reached in March of this year.

 Syria’s Place in the Unfolding Arab Spring.

Along with every other person, it seems, who went on record with thoughts about Syria’s future during the first months of that civil war, I guessed that Assad’s regime was “doomed.” (“The Impending Implosion of Syria,”  www.thebayviewreview, August 12, 2012.) While I was not reckless enough to suggest how far down the road Assad’s overthrow would come, I cannot deny that I had not anticipated that he would still be in power today. But I do feel comfortable today with taking away the qualifier: “Impending”.

The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme


Last year we made our first annual summary of major storm activity for the previous year, looking at tornado’s, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons): The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather. We now take a look at 2015 to see what kind of a year it was. As we will show, all storm activity was sightly below average for the year

The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part III

We review employment in Ontario periodically. When we saw the Toronto Star article Ontario leads Canada with 19,800 new jobs in January, we decided to see if the headline was true considering that several macro events have occurred: Canada is in recession, the oil market has collapsed and so has the Loonie. We might expect the first two events to decrease employment while the third event should reflect an increase in manufacturing jobs for the export market in particular. Let’s take a look.

In this report we present our analysis of the Ontario labour market component of the total Canadian market using two sources of data from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Data selection methodology is in the Appendix. The data we use is not seasonally adjusted* (also read our view of seasonal adjustment in The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part II). All terms are explained in the CANSIM table footnotes and are not reproduced here.

Sam Collins – February, 2016

The month below:


The state of Christianity today is briefly positioned against the rise of Islam in the West. However, Paul also gives a global perspective. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

The Confrontation Between Islam and Christianity: Some Historical Perspective.

All the best documentary evidence from the 7th and 8th centuries (the brief few generations when Islam triumphed over Christianity in the Middle East) suggests that Islam triumphed so unexpectedly  because the Christians had lost vital interest in their inherited faith.

Serious Christians were divided into mutually hostile camps by the doctrinal disputes of the past. Even as commitment to the creeds had succumbed to a secular spirit among the ruling elites a sort of tribal spirit kept alive suspicion against other denominations (as in Northern Ireland in our own time) and it was this that prevented the taking of united measures of moral and intellectual defense. Intellectual vagueness made for easy compromise on the teaching of Scripture. A spirit of “openness” to alternative religions and a weaknesses for religious novelty and superstition characterized the nominally Christian world precisely as the rigorous unbending doctrines of Islam appeared in their midst.

Jeffrey Saut – 2016

The month below:

Sam Collins – January, 2016

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The WWIII Chronicles: Introduction

As 2015 draws to a close I am beginning the development of a theme that has been ruminating in my mind for more than a year. The theme is that we are witnessing the initial skirmishes of the hot phase of World War Three (WWIII) identified by many as the New Cold War or Cold War 2. There are almost daily events that we can weave into this theme which is why we are starting this journal as a set of chronicles.

Although we like to think in terms of linear causation with the result we attribute specific events as seminal markers, that is not how the world works. A linear deterministic mode of thinking can never capture the evolution of a complex system of the actions and interactions of many actors.

Taking World war I as an example, The Week gives us the common cited simplistic immediate cause of the war as the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the archduke of Austria-Hungary. The Week also outlines several geopolitical situations that fed into an active hot phase of hostility. By ‘hot phase’ we mean military action.

Under construction


  1. How did the First World War start?


In this essay, Paul briefly covers the history of the State of Israel, the hostile response of the Arab and Muslim world based on the teachings of Muhammad, and the projection of this threat to the entire world. He calls on the need of a similar defensive response on the part of the West, similar to what the state of Israel has created. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

Political Genesis of a Theological Fallacy.

Clichés exist because they serve a purpose – as short-cuts to conclusions that might not be reached if we took time to think about them. In short, there is always some motive involved.

Take this one: Isn’t it true, after all, that we all believe in the same God?  — we” meaning Jews and Christians and Muslims.

This dictum springs effortlessly to the lips of politicians and spokesmen for the police when presented with an opportunity to discountenance an act of outrage against a mosque, a synagogue or a church. Official voices speaking for our ecumenical denominations take the cue and join in. It seems not merely right but necessary – a requirement of public order. It does not follow, however, that it is true. Indeed, the very fact that it snaps into place so automatically is the best objective clue to its falsity.

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