What We’re Watching

In no particular order and with no ranking of importance as we see it: Global seismic and geothermal activity. Are the events linked and if so will activity increase? Japanese monetary policy. Will Abenomics finally implode and take the Japanese bond market with it? The US presidential race. What happens with and around Trump may Continue reading »

Sam Collins – April, 2016

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Moving away from the geopolitics of the Middle east, Paul, in this essay, outlines the American electoral process. The key to understanding the nature of any democracy lies not in how voting is conducted so much as how candidates are chosen. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

***A Brief and Inadequate History of the Primaries.

Throughout most of my adult years I earned my bread teaching the History of the United States — in California for four years (1964-1968) and thereafter in Ottawa at Carleton University. I have always prided myself on my knowledge of the American political system — how it works now and how it worked in the past. But now there has come a moment of panic-fear that I never understood it at all. Perhaps it serves me right. 

The Ontario Jobs Picture in February: Not Good Under the Hood

With the media and the politicos largely silent on the February Labour Market Survey jobs report, we were anxious to get a look at the data. First we did a literature search. Reuters reported a Canada-wide loss of 2,300 jobs in total with a loss of 51,800 full-time jobs (offset by an unreported rise in part-time jobs), and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.3%. The Financial Post and the Globe and Mail both reported similar numbers. Are these numbers accurate and what do they mean? Let’s take a look.

Sam Collins – March, 2016

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In this essay Paul documents the current program of genocide practiced by Islamic authorities in the Middle East. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

The Birthplace of Christianity. 

For perhaps a decade or two following the Ascension of Jesus Christ, all of the people who accepted the Christian message were Jews – most of them living in Jerusalem. But then missions, headed originally by surviving apostles, went out beyond Judea and Samaria and sought converts among the many neighboring kingdoms that were, like the Jews of Judea,  subject to Roman rule. Among the first of these Kingdoms to accept Christian faith as its national faith was Armenia — a prosperous Kingdom in part of what is today Turkey. Nearly six centuries later, Islam came into the world. 

NIRP: A Disease of the Twenty-first Century

Central banks (CB) of the world have begun experimenting with a range of monetary policies never tried before. Although they have a certain academic or theoretical underpinning, they are being implemented without any significant experience to assess their effectiveness.

The latest one to emerge from the labs of the CBs is Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP. We will first provide enough background that anyone can make sense of these policies. More importantly, in the case of NIRP, we will show how it will be an economic and social disaster for the person on the street. We will also reveal who stands to gain from the economic destruction that NIRP will create. First, however, we discuss positive interest rates.

IMPLOSION: Does Syria Have A Future?

With Syria center stage in the Mideast, Paul gives speculates on Syria’s future. We present this essay reprinted by permission of Paul and from The Bayview Review. See the links at the end for direct access to the rest of Paul’s work.

The fifth anniversary of the Syrian civil war will be reached in March of this year.

 Syria’s Place in the Unfolding Arab Spring.

Along with every other person, it seems, who went on record with thoughts about Syria’s future during the first months of that civil war, I guessed that Assad’s regime was “doomed.” (“The Impending Implosion of Syria,”  www.thebayviewreview, August 12, 2012.) While I was not reckless enough to suggest how far down the road Assad’s overthrow would come, I cannot deny that I had not anticipated that he would still be in power today. But I do feel comfortable today with taking away the qualifier: “Impending”.

The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme


Last year we made our first annual summary of major storm activity for the previous year, looking at tornado’s, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons): The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather. We now take a look at 2015 to see what kind of a year it was. As we will show, all storm activity was sightly below average for the year

The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part III

We review employment in Ontario periodically. When we saw the Toronto Star article Ontario leads Canada with 19,800 new jobs in January, we decided to see if the headline was true considering that several macro events have occurred: Canada is in recession, the oil market has collapsed and so has the Loonie. We might expect the first two events to decrease employment while the third event should reflect an increase in manufacturing jobs for the export market in particular. Let’s take a look.

In this report we present our analysis of the Ontario labour market component of the total Canadian market using two sources of data from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Data selection methodology is in the Appendix. The data we use is not seasonally adjusted* (also read our view of seasonal adjustment in The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part II). All terms are explained in the CANSIM table footnotes and are not reproduced here.

Sam Collins – February, 2016

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