What We’re Reading Today
Commentary: We think we can create an earliest scenario for the hot or kinetic phase of WWIII. Obama’s last day as president is Jan. 20,2017. Between now and then, everything he does will be based on how it affects his legacy. Starting WWIII is not a good legacy If a group within the military or intelligence community want to start earlier, they will have to stage a significant false flag event. The election has been prepped for this but we don’t think whatever is the outcome will provide sufficient justification, particularly in light of widespread pre-election scrutiny.
We think that if Trump is elected, he will at least try and talk with Putin and possibly deescalate the standoff in Eastern Europe between the AE and NATO and Russia. Hillary (can’t we just drone the guy) Clinton on the other hand is a much more hard-lined in favour of armed conflict (Hillary Clinton supported all of America’s imperial wars: Writer) and in opposing Russia. Under Clinton we see a very real chance of a kinetic war with Russia, especially given the continued buildup of NATO forces on Russia’s borders, something the US would never tolerate (remember the Cuban Missile Crisis?).
We think, however, that Hillary will need at least a couple of months in office to to staff key positions, restructure any institutions necessary, purge any military officers and intelligence officials left that Obama has not already purged (an out-of-date list is: List Of Military Elite Purged And Fired Under Obama, Compiled By General Paul Vallely, 3-17-14.) and prepare the American public for war. So late spring at the earliest.
Traditionally, the Federal Reserve does everything in its power to not rock the boat leading into an election. Consequently, markets are in an artificial state. Expect to see some major market swings as markets adjust and the Fed begins to make truthful (as much as it ever can) assessments of the economy. The key thing to watch going forward is whether they will raise the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points as they have been trying to do for months. The global economy is slowing and many US economic indicators are pointing downwards. If they don’t, in their desperation make the rate increase in Dec. it is difficult to see when they will be able to. Keep in mind that raising rates has been their traditional way of cooling an overheated economy which is not the case now. In other words they stand the risk of inducing a recession more quickly than the business cycle would do.
Otherwise there’s not much news to report.