Tag Archives: AGW

Bits and Pieces – 20171229, Friday

Commentary: Closing off 2017. War has not broken out either in North Korea or the Middle East. However, the issues in these two areas remain unresolved. Iran seems to be the likely flash point.

I’ve been following the global cooling issue coincidentally with the grand solar minimum (GSM) and am convinced that it will be the most important event of the next decade next to a global war and a global economic collapse. In fact the three events have strong co-dependencies.

I am now publishing Bits and Pieces 3 or 4 times a month. This will continue but my focus is shifting to the GSM and its implications.

Bits and Pieces – 20171205, Monday

Commentary: While politicians, bureaucrats, the media and the general public are obsessing over the impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the climate and a segment of the climate science industry is busy trying to make models and data agree with the political agenda, other climate scientists are studying a much broader range of factors that are affecting our climate.

Bits and Pieces – 20160115, Wednesday

Commentary: It’s always been a matter of timing. We have a fairly good ability to predict where the next “big one” will hit but few ever get the timing right. The collapse of the housing bubble in the US in 2007 was forecast by many. A habdul of people actually got the timing right and were paid handsomely for their effort. Many say that we are in a stock market bubble in the US, in a bond market bubble, that we have a credit market bubble. The EU is fraught with financial fault lines.

Today I came across a short essay by Howard Kunstler: Made For Each Other. In it, he argues that our financial system is the least well-grounded to survive the coming debt ceiling debate in the US and the geopolitical turmoil from elections in the EU this year. Victor Sperandeo forecast 10 days ago in a KWN interview: ALERT: Former Soros Associate Just Warned We Are About To Witness ‘Absolute F*cking Chaos’ Across The Globe, that the EU elections would cause a major crisis in late March or April.

Too many PhDs and Not Enough Common Sense

Thousands of investors, both professional and amateur, build models of markets, hopefully with sufficient predictive power to make money – or avoid loosing too much. To validate their models, they back-test them. That is they run the model over a number of previous years of data to study the accuracy of their models’ predictions over the time frame chosen.

The most celebrated case is that of Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM). Founded in 1994 as a hedge fund, it counted 2 economic Nobel laureates on its staff as well as dozens of PhDs in math, physics and economics. They produced spectacular returns based on their models and strategies that were highly leveraged to produce these outsized results. Then in 1997 and 1998, the Asian and Russian financial crises produced adverse conditions of a nature that their back-testing had failed to include. A story we recall reading but could not find was that their data set stopped just short of the 1987 market crash. Had they gone back further, the outcome may have been radically different. As it was their high leverage worked against them, bankrupting the company and threatening the stability of thew entire financial system. Only Fed intervention saved it.

With this background we are perplexed that we have not heard about back-testing of climate models. The importance of such may be understood in the butterfly effect. Based on a set of mathematical equations developed by Edward Norton Lorenz, an American mathematician and meteorologist, and a pioneer of chaos theory, this effect also called the Lorenz attractor, has characteristics that show up widely in natural systems and particularly climate systems. The idea is that where your model goes depends on what set of initial conditions you use. In some systems the results of very small changes in the initial parameters create widely divergent results.

Flash Point: Typhoons in Perspective

Typhoon Haiyan that hit the Philippines recently has been classifies as a ‘super typhoon’ and the most powerful storm ever (read CNBC: ‘Most powerful storm ever to make landfall’ batters Philippines …); Express: ‘Biggest ever storm’ devastates Philippines …; The Guardian: Typhoon Haiyan the biggest yet as world’s tropical storms gather force). Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) enthusiasts have been quick to blame climate change (e.g.: The Visible Face of Anthropogenic Global Warming). The truth is somewhat different.

Updating Our Position on CO2 and Global Warming

Discussion is making the rounds about a paper published by SABER, an entity within NASA that collects and analyses data on the upper atmosphere (the mesosphere and the troposphere). SABER recorded a solar storm in March 2012 and reported it in a news item: Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere. Unlike the bulk of SABER’s publications (freely available online) which are highly complex science and unreadable by the layman, the news report offers valuable insight into the role of greenhouse gases in cooling the upper atmosphere.

The report notes:

“Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator.  “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”

For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy.  Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space.

We see that CO2 plays an essential role in protecting the planet from overheating caused by solar radiation. The data cannot be used to infer global surface temperature cooling caused by CO2 because the total dynamics of the entire atmosphere are complex and SABER only deals with part of the picture.

That being said, global (surface) temperatures have been static for about the last 15 years. The site C3 Headlines has a collection of temperature graphs from a wide array of sources that demonstrates this fact. Even James Hanson, one of the most prominent anthropogenic global warming (AGW) proponents admits this in a paper titled Global Temperature Update Through 2012 (we hope to discuss Hanson’s paper in another post). The importance of this observation is that global CO2 emissions have continued to rise during this period (see: Global Temperature and CO2 Update – December 2012). One must consider the question if the CO2 in the atmosphere is forcing up the temperature, why has the rise stopped?


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