Tag Archives: employment

The Ontario Jobs Picture in March: Treading Water – Sharks Nibbling

This month we change our reporting format to more of a streamlined summary. For data we use the Ontario labour market component  from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted.

The Ontario Jobs Picture in February: Not Good Under the Hood

With the media and the politicos largely silent on the February Labour Market Survey jobs report, we were anxious to get a look at the data. First we did a literature search. Reuters reported a Canada-wide loss of 2,300 jobs in total with a loss of 51,800 full-time jobs (offset by an unreported rise in part-time jobs), and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.3%. The Financial Post and the Globe and Mail both reported similar numbers. Are these numbers accurate and what do they mean? Let’s take a look.

The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part III

We review employment in Ontario periodically. When we saw the Toronto Star article Ontario leads Canada with 19,800 new jobs in January, we decided to see if the headline was true considering that several macro events have occurred: Canada is in recession, the oil market has collapsed and so has the Loonie. We might expect the first two events to decrease employment while the third event should reflect an increase in manufacturing jobs for the export market in particular. Let’s take a look.

In this report we present our analysis of the Ontario labour market component of the total Canadian market using two sources of data from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Data selection methodology is in the Appendix. The data we use is not seasonally adjusted* (also read our view of seasonal adjustment in The Lies My Mommy Told Me, Part II). All terms are explained in the CANSIM table footnotes and are not reproduced here.

The Ontario Employment Picture: December, 2014 – Deteriorating

December’s job losses in the Canadian labour market of 89,800 exceeded the 58,400 jobs lost in November. Of this number, 36% were in Ontario which has 39% of Canada’s population. Analysis of the data shows that the public sector is responsible for 56% of the job growth in the province.

The Ontario Employment Picture: November, 2014

Overall, the Canadian labour market lost 58,400 jobs in November, more than half in Ontario. The only growth was in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In this report we present our analysis of the Ontario labour market component of the total Canadian market using two sources of data from Statistics Canada: CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Data selection methodology is in the Appendix. The data we use is not seasonally adjusted. Presentation and discussion of the data follows.

The Ontario Employment Picture: October, 2014

We have decided to do a monthly analysis of the Ontario labour market using two sources of data from Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly, and CANSIM Table 282-0088, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Data selection methodology is in the Appendix. Presentation and discussion of the data follows.

Of Lettuce and Lives

We have been tracking the progress of robotics in the workplace – not actively – but simply by capturing links to references as they appear in our daily reading. We took an extensive look at the outlook for jobs in July, 2012: What’s the Future for Jobs?. In that article we had a section near the end on robots in the workplace. We have continued to update the section and the latest entry comes from John Mauldin’s Forecast 2014: The Human Transformation Revolution

John has got to be one of the most widely read and highly connected individuals writing today. At one point he claimed that his Thoughts from the Frontline had a readership of over one million. It is likely more today. John is very positive about man’s future due to technological innovation. He sees us as on the edge of medical advances that will extend lives significantly and cure diseases that afflict millions today. He sees an industrial revolution through robotics and new materials with amazing properties that will revolutionize all fields of technology and industry in the years ahead.

Socialism: The Wage Ghetto Created By Obamacare

We have already written about how social programs trap people in employment ghettos (Socialism: Wage Ghettos Created By Marginal Tax Rates, Socialism: More on Education and Wage Ghettos, Socialism: “When Work Is Punished: The Tragedy Of America’s Welfare State”). We now describe how Obamacare, or more formally, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), is turning out to be extremely destructive to low-income employment.

Socialism: More on Education and Wage Ghettos

In Socialism: “When Work Is Punished: The Tragedy Of America’s Welfare State” we studied how in the case of a single mother with two children living in Pennsylvania, the optimal income from employment was $29,000. Taking into account social benefits, this was the income that gave her the highest gross income for any earned income amount up to $69,000 per year. We had argued that this person was in an employment ghetto – that the rational decision was not to advance beyond $29,000 due to the penalty of decreasing gross income. We will now argue that this person is in an education ghetto also. Afterwards, we present a video of Milton Friedman and follow with a discussion on minimum wage ghettos.

Signs of a Structural Change in the US Economy

We had the privilege, a few days ago, of speaking with Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management on the topic of structural change in the US economy. In his most recent Quarterly Review and Outlook, he argues for depressed GDP growth for twenty years or more due to the high levels of debt in the US (see our discussion of his letter in The Policy of Doom). This we suggest represents a structural change.

Motivated by Dr. Hunt’s writing, we analyzed Chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech in The Hole in Jackson Hole. We suggested that both employment (Figure 6) and GDP (Figure 4) have recovered to trend and have little room for improvement from this point on. Furthermore we argued that these trends represent a structural shift and not a cyclical correction. In our conversation, Lacy suggested that we were on “the right track”.

Apart from discussing what we had previously written, Dr. Hunt suggested a number of aspects of the US economy that point to a structural shift. These we review briefly below.

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