Tag Archives: extreme weather

Bits and Pieces – 20180910, Monday

Commentary

I would argue that mankind has always progressed through technological innovation from the production of stone tools and the control of fire, through the metallurgical discoveries giving us iron, steel and other metals that enabled the industrial revolution, to modern digital technology. The arts grew alongside the technology but as an economic adjunct enabled by the wealth and leisure it produced. Similarly, the affluence that spawned the modern welfare state is a benefit of technological progress.

I read John Mauldin’s latest letter on the rise of China. Part 1 of 3 promised parts, it creates a sense of optimism in China’s future through technology. Here’s the article: China’s Command Innovation.

Mauldin is a technology-based optimist. His projection is too linear and insular for my comfort, however. The technological advances he sees coming are logically predictable as a linear projection of current progress.

However, the ascendancy of China is anathema to the American Empire. One can see the rhetoric and military expansion that the US is using to try and contain China. The same containment used against Japan resulting in WWII, when used against China, will result in WWIII.

This will set back all areas  of technological development except perhaps military ones. A nuclear exchange may make the setback permanent.

A visit to a local museum had a large display of stone artifacts used by the local neolithic nomads. There were rounded rocks that had been used as primitive tools, but the largest part of the collection by far were the arrow heads which showed rather sophisticated manufacture. The principal use of iron and the development of blacksmithing started with the manufacture of iron knives and swords.

Apart from war, the arrival of the next Grand Solar Minimum is another factor that, based on historical precedence as described by Martin Armstrong in the section “Climate” below, will be a powerful disrupting force. It has brought down entire dynasties and civilizations in the past.

My thoughts about Mauldin’s optimism – he is one of the best free sources of economic thought out there – have been with me for a long time. China’s economic ascendancy he sees as a source of optimism about our future. But what really hit home to me today was how much in contrast, the West is in decline. Read the article. Now think about a future where the Chinese are producing STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) graduates, the basis for wealth generation in a technological future while we are producing graduates in the arts, particularly social sciences like gender studies.

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The MSM and the AGW alarmist are using the extremes in weather as an alleged proof of the global warming hypothesis. They report record heat and record drought events while failing to report any of the thousands of record cold and record snowfall events that were occurring throughout the late winter and spring of this year.

The current heat and drought in Europe are not unusual as revealed by the appearance of “hunger stones”. I’ve seen a couple of references to this but Martin Armstrong has a good discussion around the topic: The Hunger Stones Have Appeared. Such stones have appeared in several rivers to which you should be able to find references if interested. I wonder if they will add 2018 to the rocks.

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Perspective

When I was doing graduate work for doctoral studies, my advisor caught me up on the use of the word “significant” in a paper I was writing. He observed that this term had an explicit statistical meaning that was quantifiable and I hadn’t supported its use with the necessary analysis.

Today, a paper came to my attention that reminded me of the use of descriptors that are emotionally loaded while failing to provide an analytical basis for their use. The paper, Causes and Predictability of the Exceptionally Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, uses words such as “exceptionally active” and “extreme ACE anomalies”. Other terms such as “active” become meaningful only with a similarly precise definition.

We will comment on the use of these terms in the context of the two graphs from the paper, presented in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Data on the 2017 US hurricane season

The Weather in 2016: An Average Year for Storms

This is our third annual review of extreme weather events following on last year’s  summary of major storm activity, The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme. In this report we look at tornado’s, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons) for 2016. As we will show, all storm activity was at or below average for the year.

The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather

We have studied tornadoes (Flash Point: A Note on Tornadoes), hurricanes (Flash Point: Hurricanes and Hyperbole), and typhoons (Flash Point: Typhoons in Perspective) in response to the hyperbole over anthropomorphic global warming and climate change and found no evidence of increased activity. With the 2014 data now in, we see how 2014 compared to past years. In addition we address the current “hottest year” hysteria.

“What’s Cookin’ Doc?”

It turns out the answer to the question is “not much”. We decided that given the new media fear phrase – “extreme weather” and recent reports of record temperatures (we see the Ottawa forecast for August 13 is a high of 17 degrees C) – that we should take a look at the global temperature situation now that we’re past the midpoint of 2014. Are we in imminent danger of species immolation or merely a comprehensive  fleecing from the carbon credit crowd? Click on images to open in new windows.

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