Tag Archives: extreme weather

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Perspective

When I was doing graduate work for doctoral studies, my advisor caught me up on the use of the word “significant” in a paper I was writing. He observed that this term had an explicit statistical meaning that was quantifiable and I hadn’t supported its use with the necessary analysis.

Today, a paper came to my attention that reminded me of the use of descriptors that are emotionally loaded while failing to provide an analytical basis for their use. The paper, Causes and Predictability of the Exceptionally Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, uses words such as “exceptionally active” and “extreme ACE anomalies”. Other terms such as “active” become meaningful only with a similarly precise definition.

We will comment on the use of these terms in the context of the two graphs from the paper, presented in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Data on the 2017 US hurricane season

The Weather in 2016: An Average Year for Storms

This is our third annual review of extreme weather events following on last year’s  summary of major storm activity, The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme. In this report we look at tornado’s, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons) for 2016. As we will show, all storm activity was at or below average for the year.

The Weather in 2014: Extreme Hysteria but Not Extreme Weather

We have studied tornadoes (Flash Point: A Note on Tornadoes), hurricanes (Flash Point: Hurricanes and Hyperbole), and typhoons (Flash Point: Typhoons in Perspective) in response to the hyperbole over anthropomorphic global warming and climate change and found no evidence of increased activity. With the 2014 data now in, we see how 2014 compared to past years. In addition we address the current “hottest year” hysteria.

“What’s Cookin’ Doc?”

It turns out the answer to the question is “not much”. We decided that given the new media fear phrase – “extreme weather” and recent reports of record temperatures (we see the Ottawa forecast for August 13 is a high of 17 degrees C) – that we should take a look at the global temperature situation now that we’re past the midpoint of 2014. Are we in imminent danger of species immolation or merely a comprehensive  fleecing from the carbon credit crowd? Click on images to open in new windows.

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