A Black Swan Worth Monitoring
We received the following link to a BBC article from our friend and contributor Dr. Paul Merkley: Esa’s satellite Swarm launch to map Earth’s magnetism. Within what might be a ho-hum article we found the following information (emphasis ours):
The strength [of the Earth’s field] has fallen by some 15% in the past two centuries. The movement of the north geomagnetic pole has also accelerated.
Researchers have speculated that Earth may be on the cusp of a polarity reversal, which would see the direction of the field flip end to end. North would become south, and vice versa.
This has not happened for 780,000 years, but the phenomenon has nonetheless been a regular occurrence through geological time.
The mission’s lead proposer, Prof Eigil Friis-Christensen, said:
You could say we’re overdue, …
We talk about the weakening of the global field but in some local areas, such as in the South Atlantic, the field has gone down 10% in just the last 20 years. But we do not know whether we will go into a reversal or whether the global field will recover …
No timeline was suggested and the speed with which a reversal could occur is unknown. So be a good Boy Scout – Be Prepared – just don’t ask us how.