We have written many articles under the Climate category on this site that deal with the “global warming” issue and climate temperature. The IPCC and AGW adherents have been confounded by the fact that temperatures have not risen since 1998 (their grudging admission). They have been working overtime (read: Excuse #52 for ‘the pause’ in global warming – natural climate variability as secular trends) to explain this “hiatus” as a pause in a trend towards planetary ignition due to anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere.
The IPCC has drawn attention to an apparent leveling-off of globally-averaged temperatures over the past 15 years or so. Measuring the duration of the hiatus … Application of the method [described in the abstract but technically complex] shows that there is now a trendless intervalof 19 years duration at the end of the HadCRUT4 surface temperature series, and of 16 – 26 years in the lower troposphere.
In other words, temperatures have not increased at the planet’s surface for the last 19 years (since 1995). In the lowest layer of the atmosphere (the troposphere) the “hiatus” – the term widely used to identify this period – may extend to 26 years.
It turns out the answer to the question is “not much”. We decided that given the new media fear phrase – “extreme weather” and recent reports of record temperatures (we see the Ottawa forecast for August 13 is a high of 17 degrees C) – that we should take a look at the global temperature situation now that we’re past the midpoint of 2014. Are we in imminent danger of species immolation or merely a comprehensive fleecing from the carbon credit crowd? Click on images to open in new windows.
We know that one of the great factors causing fluctuations in weather are the Southern Pacific temperature anomalies known as El Niño and La Niña. The climate is really in trouble now with the US military set to engage it. We expect a carrier strike group will be sent to the Southern Pacific to track down and destroy these Latinos.
President Obama issued an executive order Friday directing a government-wide effort to boost preparation in states and local communities for the impact of global warming.
The action orders federal agencies to work with states to build “resilience” against major storms and other weather extremes. For example, the president’s order directs that infrastructure projects like bridges and flood control take into consideration climate conditions of the future, which might require building structures larger or stronger — and likely at a higher price tag.
We stand in awe of Obama’s prescient intervention to mitigate the effects of global warming.
We wonder how many thousand feet of ice these structures will support in the next glacial cycle – unless Obama also issues an executive order to repeal it.
We just came across the data compiled by Dr. Roy Spencer in a June 6, 2013 article titled STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means. He plots predictions from 73 climate models showing their mean prediction. He also plots 6 data set s on observations made by satellite and balloons. The result is shown in Figure 1 taken from his blog.
Figure 1. Temperature data, model predictions versus real observations.
Discussion is making the rounds about a paper published by SABER, an entity within NASA that collects and analyses data on the upper atmosphere (the mesosphere and the troposphere). SABER recorded a solar storm in March 2012 and reported it in a news item: Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere. Unlike the bulk of SABER’s publications (freely available online) which are highly complex science and unreadable by the layman, the news report offers valuable insight into the role of greenhouse gases in cooling the upper atmosphere.
The report notes:
“Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator. “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”
For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space.
We see that CO2 plays an essential role in protecting the planet from overheating caused by solar radiation. The data cannot be used to infer global surface temperature cooling caused by CO2 because the total dynamics of the entire atmosphere are complex and SABER only deals with part of the picture.
That being said, global (surface) temperatures have been static for about the last 15 years. The site C3 Headlines has a collection of temperature graphs from a wide array of sources that demonstrates this fact. Even James Hanson, one of the most prominent anthropogenic global warming (AGW) proponents admits this in a paper titled Global Temperature Update Through 2012 (we hope to discuss Hanson’s paper in another post). The importance of this observation is that global CO2 emissions have continued to rise during this period (see: Global Temperature and CO2 Update – December 2012). One must consider the question if the CO2 in the atmosphere is forcing up the temperature, why has the rise stopped?
All the climate models used by climate scientists to predict temperature rise due to CO2 are flawed. The predictions by the models for air temperature and ocean temperature trend rises all exceed the observed temperature changes which are essentially flat over the period of accurate observation. Predictions of atmospheric hot spots have not been validated. Predictions for for outgoing radiation from the earth are opposite from observed values.
The climate theory behind the models posits a negative feedback or “amplification” factor for CO2 production that gives the predicted temperature increases. In this case, the observed measurements do not support the theory. Therefore the theory is wrong. The precise error is in the assumed value of the amplification factor which theorists have estimated to be 3. Climate scientists on the “skeptical” side of the debate argue that the amplification factor is about 0.5 due to increased cloud production and sunlight reflection. Support for their position comes from direct measurement of outgoing radiation from the earth. It increases with temperature whereas all the models have it decreasing.
All of this is explained eloquently in this 12:53 minute video.
Why then do we still have a popular mistaken picture of Co2’s role in climate temperature change? One reason is that the high profile supporters of the theory in the scientific community have held so tenaciously to their position that their professional reputations and careers are now at stake. And the government scientist are just that, individuals hired to espouse the government position. This brings us to the core issue. Climate science is being used by some interests to create vast fortunes for themselves through carbon credit trading while others such as those at the UN are using it as a mechanism to further their political objectives of wealth redistribution.
From our friend JR, a few quotes that bring the climate change issue into perspective:
Former U.S. Senator Timothy Wirth (D-CO), addressing the Earth Summit in 1992, said, “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.’” At the same conference, Deputy Assistant of State Richard Benedick said, “A global warming treaty [Kyoto] must be implemented even if there is no scientific evidence to back the [enhanced] greenhouse effect.”
What follows is a guest post on climate issues by our friend JR.
Global Warming, Your Freedoms – and the Man Behind the Curtain
In the last article, we examined what was behind the frantic global warming push on a philosophical, macro level. In short, global warming is a witch’s brew of Malthusian theory conjoined with Fabian socialism, Margaret Sanger and Edward Bernays (the originator of modern advertising and public manipulation). I have demonstrated how global warming is the vehicle whereby the left would like to create a “USSR of the world” – all for our own good, of course.Perhaps former Czech president Vaclav Klaus and leader of the Czech Velvet Revolution which overthrew the communists in his country summarized it best in Blue Planet in Green Shackles: “Today’s debate about global warming is essentially a debate about freedom. The environmentalists would like to mastermind each and every possible (and impossible) aspect of our lives.” Or, as Nancy Pelosi famously stated“Every aspect of our lives must be subjected to an inventory… of how we are taking responsibility.”No word, of course, to the age old question posed by the Roman satirist Juvenal, Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? (Who will watch the guards?), or the abuse and corruption that has characterized every socialist utopia from Robespierre to Eric Holder.