Tag Archives: hurricanes

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Perspective

When I was doing graduate work for doctoral studies, my advisor caught me up on the use of the word “significant” in a paper I was writing. He observed that this term had an explicit statistical meaning that was quantifiable and I hadn’t supported its use with the necessary analysis.

Today, a paper came to my attention that reminded me of the use of descriptors that are emotionally loaded while failing to provide an analytical basis for their use. The paper, Causes and Predictability of the Exceptionally Active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, uses words such as “exceptionally active” and “extreme ACE anomalies”. Other terms such as “active” become meaningful only with a similarly precise definition.

We will comment on the use of these terms in the context of the two graphs from the paper, presented in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Data on the 2017 US hurricane season

Bits and Pieces – 20170610 – Saturday

Commentary: Trump is right about NATO: the Europeans, particularly the Germans have been riding on Uncle Sam’s coattails. Britain and Russia have one thing in common, their major wars over the last 2 or 3 hundred years have been with the French and the Germans. Merkel’s EU has been playing hardball over Brexit. Britain should form closer ties with Russia and leave NATO since their adversary is the EU, meaning France and Germany.

Here’s an interesting prediction. I follow the site King World News. Reading past Eric Kings habit of being stuck in the superlative mode of everything, he interviews a few people that I consider reliable. One is Andrew Maguire of whom he published a most recent post on June 9. Maguire states that in exactly 26 days from “today”, a dramatic event will take place in the metals market repricing gold higher. The problem is King doesn’t explicitly state when the interview occurred so “today” remains a bit elusive.

If we use the 9th as “today”, 26 days puts the event on July 5, the day after independence day which falls on a Tuesday. Traditionally, trading falls off during the summer (hence “sell in May and go away”). This year, many traders will also take the Monday off with markets closed on Tuesday. If one wanted to make a move when traders were thin, one might choose the 3rd or the 4th. On the other hand, one might want to schedule a move for the 5th to catch markets as the open and take advantage of the market response on a full trading day. It also might be that the call is bad and nothing happens.

I will bet on a good call although my move a few days before makes things a bit tricky. Here’s the interview: ALERT: Unknown Entity Deletes Portion Of Whistleblower Andrew Maguire’s KWN Audio Interview About A Major Event In 26 Days. If you want to place a bet it should be in by June 30.

The Weather in 2016: An Average Year for Storms

This is our third annual review of extreme weather events following on last year’s  summary of major storm activity, The Weather in 2015: Hardly Extreme. In this report we look at tornado’s, Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific hurricanes (typhoons) for 2016. As we will show, all storm activity was at or below average for the year.

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