You have undoubtedly heard by now, that there is an uptick in the number of COVID cases that may require another lockdown. Anthony Furey writing for True North says that the lockdown in Ontario has been planned for months (FUREY: Politicians threaten a second lockdown). However, using the data, we will show that a lockdown is not necessary.

First consider what an uptick in cases means. Presumably it is the daily number of new positive PCR tests out of the total number of tests run for the day. This can mean that there are new cases in the community, or that increased testing has found preexisting cases.

A friend asked if a person was tested twice over a period of time and was positive in both, are they counted twice? I don’t know.

By now, we are condition to have an immediate fear response to this news. And what are we afraid of? Well – of drying from the disease. So lets look at the data.

Using the Canada COVID-19 Dashboard, here is the data for all of Canada showing the number of daily new cases up to September 17:

Source: Covid-19 Canada, interactive graph.

We see from the graph that the first cases were diagnosed around the beginning of March. If we smooth the data to eliminate one-day spikes and dips using a 3-day moving average for example, we find that the daily case count peaked around April 23.

The next chart is of daily deaths:

ibid.

The daily deaths peaked about May 1. It takes about 2 weeks for the most serious cases, to be admitted to a hospital, treated, moved to ICU as conditions deteriorate, and eventually to die. This is consistent with the time difference in the peaks of the two graphs.

The website graphs are interactive allowing one to find the numbers for each individual day. Inspecting the two graphs closely, we find that cases reached a minimum at the end of June of around 400/day gradually increasing to around 800/day today. This is roughly double.

Let’s look at deaths. The numbers fell to around 10 in the second week in July and have basically been steady since then in the 4-10 range. Even though there is an uptick in the cases, there is no uptick in deaths. This means that further lockdowns are not necessary and that we can continue opening up.

Lockdowns globally are proving to be a failed strategy and out governments need to admit their mistake instead of doubling down. That is, unless their economic destruction serves another agenda, something for which an argument can be made.

Some Commentary

There is additional evidence that the real risk of death is behind us. Consider “Horowitz: Thousands of cases but ZERO hospitalizations in colleges: This is GOOD news. But states and colleges force draconian lockdowns“. This report confirms the divergence between positive tests and the number of hospitalizations and therefore dearths. It also points out the problem of false positive tests with the PCR testing regime used in Canada.

Had the originally stated purpose of the lockdowns been managed properly, that is by maintaining a steady hospitalization rate at the desired level until the disease burnt itself out, we would likely have herd immunity by now. Sweden, which never locked down may be at or near this point.

Initial estimates of the requirement for herd immunity of 70%-80% of the poulation was based on no evidence from this pandemic at all. I have seen estotes based on the epidemiology data that it in fact may be as low as around 23%. Evidence emeging of partial or full immunity based on memory T-cells suggests that many of us carry natural immunity which would explain the high number of asymptomatic cases and the low number of hospitalizations.

The more I learn, I have to say that all those who I derided early on for saying that it was nothing more than the common flu, were correct.

DON”T BE FEARFUL.

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Continuing what will be a regular feature of my posts, I give you some music to lighten the darkness in the world. Here again are Vocers8 with ‘Maria’.


The POOG

I started a blog in 2011 called The POOG, an acronym for "pissed off old guy". This is the current incarnation.

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