Ontario by now has considerable experience with lockdowns. To see how well the latest is working, first consider the study by Lauer et al[1] that looked at onset of symptoms from date of infection (incubation period). In the study, the first cases did not emerge until day 2 and after 11.5 days, 97.5% of the cases had manifested, with half the cases having manifested by day 5.

The importance of this study is that any change in the infection environment such as some new non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) technique should be registering its effects within a week. The latest lockdown began 12:01 AM, April 1. Here is the chart of cases 14 days later:

You decide how effective their lockdown is. Apart from the growing literature and examples of lockdowns being ineffective, one might ask if public health officials have any real understanding of this disease.


  1. Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, et al. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Con firmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of I.M. May 5, 2020; https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.
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I started a blog in 2011 called The POOG, an acronym for "pissed off old guy". This is the current incarnation.


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