It’s the morning after … after the Canadian election that is. Recognizing that there are a large number of mail-in ballots to be counted over the next few days, here are the party standings in parentheses. The first number is the party standing in parliament at dissolution[2] and the second is the party standing this morning[1]:
- Liberals: (155/158) – 32.24%.
- Conservatives: (119/119) – 33.96%.
- Bloc Quebecois: (32/34) – 7.75%.
- New Democrat: (24/25) – 17.7%.
- Green: (2/2) – 2.32%.
- Independent (Other): (5/0) – 0.94%.
- Vacant: (1/0).
- People’s Party: (0/0) – 5.09%.
These results present a major problem for the MSM and the CBC in particular. They wee able to include the Green party in debates while excluding the PPC party based on the point that the PPC did not have 4% of the popular vote in the previous election which was their arbitrary cutoff point. Now, if they try and do this the Greens get excluded. The next election coverage will be a little different!
Leadership Change Coming?
Trudeau went into the election with a six point lead in the polls, aiming for a majority in an election that nobody but him wanted. He only managed to prove – if more proof was necessary – how incompetent he is, reducing his popularity further in the process. As a former drama teacher he should recognize the phrase “exit stage left”. Expect the shepherd’s crook to have to come out.
His obvious replacement is Mark Carney who was brought back to replace him to advise him. I think the party itself may have to sort out the radical left in its ranks from the interests of the Liberal elite in Canada.
The other big loser is O’Tool. He ended up with the same number of seats as at dissolution of parliament. But he turfed a number of MP’s from the caucus over the session so he actually lost seats for the party. Conservatives like leadership conventions and excel at choosing bad leaders. Expect another one soon.
My favourite to replace him would be Pierre Poilievre. The guy is smart making O,Tool look like a 15-watt bulb. Maybe that’s why O’Tool sidelined him. He speaks both official language without accent as far as I can tell. He may be the only potential candidate that could take on Mark Carney on economic issues which will dominate the next parliament.
Max Bernier failed a second time to win his own riding. However, there’s no one visible in the PPC party to replace him. The party did increase its popular vote standing by a factor of 2 or 3 times and it’s a young party. I expect Max to stay on.
I understand the Greens chose a leader that they didn’t like and tried to sabotage in the election. Her greatest shortcoming for the Greens are that she is eloquent and intelligent. They may decide to dump her.
The NDP, for a party that reputedly had no money did well, picking up a seat. The Bloc picked up two seats. These parties are smart enough not to fix what ain’t broken. Expect no change there.
As a friend said, this election was like a ‘lunch-box letdown’ – and at a bargain of only $600 million.
References
- Canadian federal election results 2021: A live riding-by-riding breakdown of the vote
- Current Party Standings
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