Ray Dalio has studied all the great empires since the Roman Empire, principally from an economic perspective. All empires follow a similar pattern from their inception through their decline. The American Empire is clearly well on the decline with China, the next global empire, rising.

Dalio also has a website, Economic Princioles where more material is available.

Other prominent economic cycle theorists include Martin Armstrong, Charles Nenner, and Gordon Long.

UK Health Data

UK weekly surveillance reports from the UK Health Security Agency are found here. The most current data as of this writing is week 19. However, we will use the week 13 data below. from COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13), because the ministry stropped reporting critical data hereafter, possibly because an accurate determination of what the data is saying is somewhat difficult to piece together and possibly because it can be easily misinterpreted by unskilled readers.

Percent of Population Inoculated by Doses and Age Group

For the UK, cumulative weekly vaccine uptake by age is shown below in Figure 1 for 1 dose, Figure 2 for 2 doses, and Figure 3 for 3 doses. Since the data is graphical rather than tabular, we will use our best estimate by interpolation.

Figure 1. At least one dose. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)
Figure 2. At least two doses. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)
Figure 3. At least three doses. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)

Since the elderly have received the focus of vaccination efforts, the high vaccination rates of 90-95% of the population as shown in the three Figures is not surprising.

To read this data, choose an age group, say the 45-50 group. Figure 1 shows about 80% of that group in the population have had at least one dose. Figure 2 shows about 78% have had at least 2 doses and Figure 3 shows about 65% have had three. The difference between Figures 1 and 2 is about 2%. These people have had only one dose. Similarly, between Figures 2 and 3, 13% have had only two doses. 65% have had all three doses.

Cases, Emergency Service Usage, and Deaths

The following four tables contain actual numbers of: Table 1, total COVID cases; Table 2, cases requiring emergency hospitalization services; and Tables 3a and 3b, cases resulting in death. It must be noted that the numbers are observed numbers and are not adjusted for the rate of occurrence of the vaccine dosage class. That is, if the unvaccinated make up 5% of an age group as appears to be the case in the 80+ group in Figure 1, then with 95% vaccinated with at least one dose, we would expect 19 times as many cases or deaths or whatever if the vaccines have no effect. In this section we explore the actual relationships.

Before we analyze the real numbers, it is a reasonable expectation that if vaccines are effective in preventing or reducing numbers, that as the number of doses increase we would expect numbers to fall, hopefully dramatically. Let us see if this is the case. We will use the 80+ age group for our analysis, partly because the age groups in the Figures do not align with the age groups in the table, the 80+ group being an exception. We ignore the unlinked individuals in the tables.

Table 1. Cases by age group. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)

For the 80+ group in Table 1 estimated at 5% of the total, divide 923 by 5 to get the contribution as a 1% unit or 184.6. Now to get the vaccinated contribution, add the 4 column entries to get 53067. Divide by the 95% total contribution and get 558.6. This is 3.02 times larger than the contribution from the unvaccinated.

Since we are looking at actual numbers, that they may be influenced by vaccination status is already present in the numbers. The conclusion is that for this age demographic in Britain, being vaccinated means that you are 3 times more likely to be counted as a case which presumably means that you are 3 times more likely to have symptomatic COVID than the unvaccinated.

Inspection of the data for all age groups suggests we will get similar results across all groups.

Table 2. Emergency services by age group. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)

Using the same demographic and a similar calculation as we did for Table 1, your risk of having to use emergency services is only about 1.2 times as for the the unvaccinated. Since we are using interpolated data we can’t assign the error range for the calculation and the risk may be roughly even.

Table 3a. Deaths within 26 days by age group. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)

For the 80+ age group, interpolating numbers gives about 2% difference between one and three doses. There would seen to be a disproportionate risk of death between one and two doses but we don’t have the precise numbers to determine this. Using the calculation as above, your risk of dying when vaccinated is ).66 or two thirds that of the unvaccinated. This is consistent with what authorities say about vaccination lessening your chance of dying excluding other factors such as blood serum levels of 25hydroxy D3 (Vitamin D3).

Table 3b. Deaths within 60 days by age group. Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: 31 March 2022 (week 13)

An interesting observation between Tables 3a and 3b is that after 60 days the unvacinated have a 1.4 times greater risk of dying while the vaccinated have a 1.9 or almost double risk of dying.

Geert Vanden Bossche on Vaccine Policy

Geert Vanden Bossche sounded early concerns about how the massive vaccination programs may in fact be responsible for increasing the risk of variants and other negative effects. I ignored his initial appeal because it generated so much controversy. I am happy to offer then the video below in which he repeats his early warnings.

Links to Articles of Note


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I started a blog in 2011 called The POOG, an acronym for "pissed off old guy". This is the current incarnation.


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