Martin Armstrong who has a good handle on the WWIII/Ukraine meme has tipped me off to a new source, Patrick Lancaster who is an individual embedded in the conflict areas. He provides good on-the-ground reporting. Here’s his most recent video that he has posted (33:16 minutes) in which he interviews refugees from the fighting.
Another source, The Duran, has a Monday review of the war. I can’t embed the video but here’s a link to it: Military Reality vs. Political Reality: Putin vs. the West. In it, Alexander Mercouris gives his analysis of the military vs. the political views and positions on the war (42:34 minutes, 20220130). The Western military view appears to be to disengage from a losing cause, particularly since it is drawing down military stockpiles. The Western political view is at odds with it, urging a fight to the last Ukrainian. This video will give you a taste of the major dynamics at play in this war.
Yesterday, Judge Andrew Napolitano interviewed Col. Douglas Macgregor. In the interview, Macgregor describes in detail the division between the military commanders and what they are advising, and the politicians in the Western countries and what they are saying and doing. Here’s the interview (26:33 minutes).
What the politicians, legacy media, and the public at large are acutely ignorant of regarding military aid has several critical aspects:
- Much of the material assistance has yet to be manufactured, something that can take months to years in the case of complex systems. As an example, Canada’s promise of 200 personnel carriers.
- No country except those governed by idiots will send their best and most modern equipment. I’d be surprised if much of it can function in the field for a week before breaking down.
- It can take weeks to months as is the case with Patriot missile batteries to send Ukrainians to training facilities and train them.
- For a piece of equipment like a tank you need proper repair facilities with specifically trained mechanics and weapons systems personnel, something that the Ukrainians don’t have.
- You need an inventory of spare parts. The West has promised Abrams, Chieftain and Leopard tanks. Parts are not interchangeable and repair as well as operational crews are not interchangeable.
- For the West to send military personnel to operate any system constitutes an act of war against Russia, something not to be undertaken lightly.
The war will be over before much of this equipment can reach the battlefield in operational status. Scott Ritter explains the problem around the use of tanks in more detail (18:01 minutes). He notes that an expansion of the war to include NATO means it will go nuclear.
Why the War Has to Go Nuclear
The USA and Britain to a lesser extent have enjoyed safety from attacking armies because to mounta ground offensive one has to get one’s army across a non-trivial body of water. Nowadays, with advanced submarine capability and intercontinental ballistic missile weapons, surface navies are extremely vulnerable.
The thing about US naval power is that it is organized around the carrier task group. With somewhere around 10 of these, the US can project military power around the globe – its empire. These groups also make nice compact targets for hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads.
The US has around ~100K troops in Europe with ~40K in Poland and Roumania, a few hours drive from Moscow. Russia has no effective troop force anywhere near the US, let alone within a days drive from Washington. If war seriously goes kinetic with NATO, Russia will have to nuke all the defence equipment production facilities in the continental US because they have no other way to take them out. There is no way you’ll wake up one morning and find a Russian soldier inviting himself in for breakfast. Chinese is another matter, however.
Current News and Views
- Let’s make sure WWIII is really a hot and therefore nuclear war: Former UK Defense Minister Says NATO May Need To Send Ground Forces To Ukraine. (20230201)
- Putin Establishes Joint Military Training Centers With Belarus. (20230131)
- Biden Says “No” To US Providing F-16 Jets For Ukraine (..For Now). (20230131)
- France ‘Open’ To Sending Fighter Jets To Ukraine While UK Says “Not Practical”. (20230131)
- Europe will be Destroyed over Ukraine. Martin Armstrong’s system has a major global war in the 2025-2027 time frame. (20230131)
- Germany’s Scholz denounces ‘bidding war’ over jets for Ukraine. (20230130)
The Frontline As I Publish
Articles In This Series
Refer to the series index in The WWIII Chronicles.
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