The Carney Chronicles: Ep11, It’s All Net-Zero; a Climate Primer

Carney Reveals His Climate Ideology

A few weeks ago, Carney announced the first 5 of his projects of national interest. The announcement that aired on CSPAN, CBC, and many other mainstream sources is shown below (5:51 minutes).

I was struck by the number of times he used qualifiers that implied carbon reduction. Here’s the list:

• low-carbon energy (LCE)
• 35% – 60% (LCE)
• clean power (twice)
• clean energy
• carbon-neutral
• greenhouse gas

As we can see, net-zero is the foundational concept underlying all his policies.

The next video should show Carney how to grow an economy with jobs (11:31 minutes).

A Climate Primer

To discuss climate and climate change, we need to start with a clear definition of both terms. With respect to climate, I will provide a definition based on the scientific literature as well as some which might be considered a more popular approach for common understanding.

If you wish to make claims about climate issues based on “science”, then you should understand the definition of climate that I will present as given by Wendl¹. For discussion, you may wish to use an alternative definition recognized by the scientific community. Lacking a definition, you have no basis for making claims about climate from a scientific point of view. To merely allude to claims by unnamed “climate scientists” or “experts” means that you have no grounds for making claims about climate at all.

Definition of Climate

Wendl¹ presents four common definitions of climate in terms of dynamic meteorological variables of the atmosphere as well as variables from other systems such as the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface and the biosphere. He then proposes a modified definition that he feels is more accomodating to the four, namely:

… suppose that the actual external conditions over a time period are subject to a certain regime of varying external conditions. Then the climate over this time period is defined as the finite distribution over time which arises under the regime of varying external conditions.

This may lead to a scientifically useful definition but in itself is not.

Definition of Climate Change

A discussion of climate change is meaningless without a clear definition of climate. Following is a list of some sources for definitions of climate change. Incidentally, climate is a dynamic system which has the fundamental property of change. Hence to speak of climate change as a term on its own is to say nothing.

The Encyclopedia Britannica⁵ offers a definition more amenable to discussion:

climate change, periodic modification of Earth’s climate brought about as a result of changes in the atmosphere as well as interactions between the atmosphere and various other geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic factors within the Earth system.

Note that there is no attribution of cause. NOAA⁶ gives an abbreviated and less useful but simpler definition:

Climate change Changes in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer. Climate change encompasses both increases and decreases in temperature, as well as shifts in precipitation, changes in frequency and location of severe weather events, and changes to other features of the climate system. 

The Canadian Government⁴ offers a politically motivated definition of climate change that includes a causal formulation that is simply unproven and inappropriate in a definition.

Temperature and CO2

Mearns² reviewed the Vostock ice core for the period for the time interval 137,383 to 102,052 years ago. and found:

… there is general agreement that temperature changes precede CO₂ changes during the rising phase and CO₂ lags temperature by a larger amount during the falling phase. Figure 4 and Figure 5 show similar relationships for the Vostok ice core (note: EPICA ad Vostok are both in the Antarctic).

Similarly, data from the EPICA Antarctic ice core⁷ shows CO₂ lagging temperature. See also ⁸ and ¹⁰.

References

1. Werndl, Charlotte. (2014). On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 67. 10.1093/bjps/axu048. PDF.
2. Mearns, Euan. The Vostok Ice Core and the 14,000 Year CO2 Time Lag. Energy Matters. June 14, 2017.
3. CO₂ lags temperature rises in ice core data
4. Climate change concepts. The Canadian government’s official propaganda piece on it.
5. climate change. Encyclopedia Britannica:
6. Key Definitions and Literature Cited. NOAA.
7. ICE CORES. Climate Data Information.
8. CO₂ lags temperature rises in ice core data.
9. The 800 year lag in CO₂ after temperature – graphed. JoNova.

Discussion

The data clearly shows that CO₂ lags temperature with a high correlation. The greenhouse effect does contribute to warming but natural mechanisms counter any tendency to runaway. Were this not so you wouldn’t be reading this article now.

Scientists have no means of measuring the effect of the greenhouse effect on climate. Their knowledge is based on models built on assumptions which in turn are built on a very rudimentary understanding of climate and its drivers.

Therefore, all our efforts to achieve net-zero are a colossal waste of money and resources.

Alberta and Saskatchewan File

This post has been sitting unfinished way too long but Danielle Smith just announced a strategic initiative to counter Carney’s (“pipelines are boring”) deliberate intransigence on their project requestse (15:27 minutes).

Series Index

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