Last updated by The POOG on October 26, 2020.
This category is broad. It covers topics like climate, earthquakes, volcanoes, weather, and the earth’s magnetic field and magnetosphere, all of which are connected.
The intention is to include graphical data sources so that the viewer can get current data on a range of subjects. Data based on observation trumps speculation and the output of models.
Since space weather and solar events including coronal mass ejections (CME), solar flares, and the sun’s effect on earth’s geomagnetic and geoelectric fields have a major direct effect on climate, I will include solar events and space weather in this category.
Although there are geophysical features of the earth’s crust known as fault lines, our concern is a more figurative interpretation. That is the geophysical events that pose a significant threat to some parts of the planet. We include climate not because there are any significant risks from rising CO2 levels or temperature but quite the opposite.
The threats are all related to global cooling. That mammoths have been found flash frozen with stomach material undigested suggests that extreme and rapid cooling events may be possible. In any case, another grand solar minimum (GSM) with reduced temperatures over a decade or several decades means reduced harvest with starvation and increasing disease. Indeed past such minima have correlated with the fall of empires.
Figure 3 of the Vostock ice core data in our article CO2 shows a cyclical pattern of glaciation lasting roughly 100,000 years. If the pattern continues then we are near the en of an inter-glacial warm period and should be expecting a relatively steep drop of temperature in geological time scale, of 10 degrees Kelvin (Celsius).
Determinations of solar minima are based on sunspot cycles. We are beginning solar cycle 25 having reached the bottom of the last cycle, likely in 2019. There is a wide range of estimation of the strength of cycle 25. The average estimate is that it will be about the same strength as cycle 24 before descending into the next GSM.
These I am researching but cannot report reliably on at this time.
Solar Flares and Micro Novas
There is evidence of some solar disturbance, quite possibly a micro-nova that creates a mass extinction roughly every 12,000 years. The research on this is very young but covered from a layman’s perspective by Ben Davidson at SuspiciousObservers.org. We should have warning time possibly on the order of many decades or centuries to prepare. It won’t happen tomorrow.
A more immediate threat is that of a polar reversal. It has been known for decades that the north magnetic pole is not stationary and does not align with the north geographic pole. The concern is that the magnetic pole movement has increased dramatically over the last couple of decades and is accelerating.
The south magnetic pole is no longer on the continent of Antarctica and the north magnetic pole is heading for Siberia. They are projected to meet in the Indian Ocean.
Migrating animals and birds use the earth’s magnetic field to guide themselves. A pole shift could have disastrous effects on many species. Ocean navigation by ships is also affected and corrections must be regularly made to navigation devices.
The changing earth magnetosphere also allows a much stronger influence from the sun and galactic cosmic rays. Cosmic rays, apart from creating known medical problems, also affect silica-rich volcanic magma chambers leading to eruptions whir if large enough have a global cooling effect. The increased radiation also affects our DNA and the DNA of other species leading to more mutations.
The 1859 Carrington event is believed to have been caused by an X10 class solar flare. It happened before telephone and electrical transmission systems but it took out the telegraph stations in the US. Such a flare or stronger has the potential to take out the electrical grid for months to years. This would be a near extinction event for our species.
I’ve Got Your Back
I’m monitoring these situations daily. Your back is my back. The most immediate threats are solar weather events. The warning tome that we have for these is hours to two or three days.
We are getting better at volcanic activity prediction and large earthquakes. I do not monitor this activity, not living in a seismically active region, but you might if you live on the Ring of Fire or such a place.