{"id":7374,"date":"2023-06-28T21:04:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T21:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepoog.com\/wp\/?p=7374"},"modified":"2023-07-05T22:27:20","modified_gmt":"2023-07-05T22:27:20","slug":"the-false-flag-to-start-wwiii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepoog.com\/wp\/2023\/06\/28\/the-false-flag-to-start-wwiii\/","title":{"rendered":"The False Flag to Start WWIII"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For some context I will begin with the 2014\/15 Minsk Agreements that, among other conditions, specify:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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3. Implement decentralization of power<\/strong>, including by enacting the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government<\/strong> in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. Ensure the holding of early local elections<\/strong> in accordance with the Law of
Ukraine on the interim status of local self-government<\/strong> in certain areas of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Law on Special Status).<\/p>\nProtocol on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group (Minsk Agreement)<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I discussed this in Ukraine and the Minsk Agreement; War Update<\/a>, including the reference to German Chancellor Merkel’s<\/a> statement that the West never intended to honour the agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s Annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In September 2022, Russia held a referendum in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia in Eastern Ukraine. The results were in favour of seceding from the Ukraine to become independent. Further, the territories applied for absorption into Russia and later in the week, Russia formally annexed them (read: Russia to formally annex four occupied Ukrainian regions<\/a>). These regions are shown in orange on the map below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Note that the Zaporizhia nuclear power station is in the oblast of Zaporizhia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senate Resolution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On June 22, 2023, senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) introduced a resolution into the US Senate “To Address Threat Of Russian Tactical Nukes<\/a>“. Full text of the resolution is HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s a video of the resolution sponsors (6:10 minutes):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Graham and Blumenthal, shown in the C-span video above, do him one better holding up a statement (go to the 0:40 minute mark) from their eminently capable, lucid, and believable commander-in-chief, Joe Biden, which says that the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons is “real”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Biden, who accidentally left by the stage door instead of the front door of the speaking engagement, was found alive and well in a nearby homeless encampment. He was eating a chocolate ice cream cone with his new friends, one of whom he had already appointed as the new director of Homeland Security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humour aside, let us look at the resolution in detail and in light of Graham’s following statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Our message is to those around Putin. If you do this and follow his order, should he give it, you can expect a massive response from NATO. You will be at war with NATO.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The Preamble<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is a collection of facts which appear to be legitimate and verifiable. Each is framed as a “Whereas …” type statement. It is important to read these carefully while asking yourself what is the corresponding position of the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, the US military doctrine allows for a first strike move. The Russian’s dictates a response to an existential situation. Consider the second “whereas” stating that Russia has 2000 tactical nukes. Later points make the case that Russia has deployed tactical nukes in Belarus, the only land-based deployment outside of Russia proper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sounds terrifying! But imagine how a Russian feels when he sees a map of the deployed US nuclear arsenal:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For every point Graham makes, the US poses the greeter threat. Also, as you read through the points, Graham demonstrates that it is NATO escalation that is bringing Russia closer to the use of a tactical nuke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Resolution<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There are three resolutions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resolution 1<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

It simply acknowledges that staging Russians tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a threat to NATO, similar to but rather less than the threat of US strategic nuclear weapons stationed in Turkey and the nuclear-capable missile batteries stationed in Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resolution 2<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This is the important one. It considers that the use of a nuclear device or an attack on a nuclear power station by the Russians, should it spread radiation into a NATO country, to be an attack on that country triggering a full NATO response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now although NATO is America’s defacto foreign legion, the US does not get to use it as it wants without going through gyrations to allow the invocation of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, the mutual defence clause. This would then be a full scale war with NATO and not the proxy war that NATO is currently conducting against Russia. And that will be the formal start of the kinetic phase of WWIII.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resolution 3<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This resolution calls for a meeting of NATO members to come up with a strategy and plan to allow an immediate response to a condition identified in the second resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Zelensky Wild Card<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With false flag incidents you really have to use your head. By definition they are designed to create an illusion, a false narrative that the creator wants you to believe. Both in his rhetoric but also in a few events, Zelensky has tried to draw NATO into the conflict. An example is the case where a Ukrainian air defence missile was fired into Poland[4]<\/sup>, allegedly by mistake, but represented as a Russian missile attack[5]<\/sup>. He is claiming also that Russia is preparing a false flag incident[2][3]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As discussed in the beginning of this post, the Zaporizhia power plant is in the annexed province of Zaporizhia which Russia now considers part of the homeland. Ukraine have attacks it in the past without serious damage. I understand that the Russians have shut down all reactors at the plant except one. This minimizes their requirement for cooling water. The Kakhovka dam<\/a> which was recently breached created a reservoir that provided cooling water. So far the plant maintains operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key point is that a nuclear accident from an attack at the plant would cause most damage to Russian territory, particularly since prevailing winds blow towards Russia. Destruction of the plant, the largest in the Ukraine, would drastically reduce power supply to Russian land. In other words, Russia would gain nothing from an event at Zaporizhia but would suffer a considerable loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has been concerned for months that Zelenski would use a dirty bomb as an excuse to bring in NATO. Russia would have nothing to gain from exploding a dirty bomb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the key point on the nuclear (or any other) false flag issue. False flags are created to justify one entity’s attacking another. Russia has no need for any justification to attack Ukraine. It is already at war, is winning, and can escalate at any time it wants as a matter of normal battle strategy. Ukraine, however, needs to create an event that would provoke NATO to enter the war directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War May Be Coming<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

That the Neocons in the US want war has been argued for a long time[1]<\/sup>. That Ukraine is losing the war has been widely known for a long time also although the official narrative of Ukraine’s winning has been kept up to keep the defence dollars and corruption money flowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has made little headway, not having reached the first of three Russian lines of defence yet. Losses of both personnel and equipment are in the double digits, percentage wise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russians have been content to plod along slowly, minimizing their losses while destroying their enemy. This, however, gives NATO time to improve logistics. The Wagner insurrection was in part due to impatience on the part of some elements of the Russian military with the slow pace of the war. A major uptick could see a total Ukrainian collapse within 2 or 3 months. This could only be delayed or prevented by a major NATO intervention. Graham and Blumenthal have created the conditions for such. Zelensky has proven to be the man to instigate it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ongoing Monitoring of the Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n